NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) – The global production of wheat is over 2 percent down in 2017-18 from last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA has estimated world wheat production at 737.83 million tonnes in its latest monthly report released on Wednesday, down by 1.7 million tonnes from 739.53 million tonnes projected in last report published in June and 16.5 million tonnes down from 754.31 million tonnes estimated in July 2016 for last crop season.
The global output is down due to lower production forecasts for the U.S., Australia, China, and the EU. However, supplies of wheat are fractionally down as they partially offset by higher production expected for Russia and Turkey.
Wheat production in the U.S. is estimated at 47.89 million tonnes in July, 1.8 million tonnes down from June’ s prediction of 49.64 million tonnes but 15 million tonnes from last year.
Russia’s wheat production is increased by 3.0 million tons to 72.0 million as growing conditions to date are similar to last year when Russia achieved record yields. Turkey’s wheat production is up 1.5 million tons to 19.5 million on favorable crop conditions. European Union wheat production is down 0.8 million tons to 150.0 million on smaller expected crops in Spain and France. Australia’s 2017/18 production is reduced 1.5 million tons to 23.5 million on dry conditions.
U.S. Wheat Supplies
Projected 2017-18 U.S. wheat supplies are lowered this month on reduced U.S. wheat production more than offsetting higher beginning stocks and imports. Forecast 2017-18 U.S. wheat production is lowered 64 million bushels to 1,760 million. The NASS July Crop Production report provides survey-based production forecasts for all wheat classes for the first time in the 2017-18 crop year.
The production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year for these two classes primarily due to severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production on both higher harvested acreage and yield.
Projected exports and feed and residual usage are lowered to 975 and 150 million bushels, respectively, largely on the reduction in durum and other spring wheat supplies. Projected 2017-18 ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 938 million this month, but are 21 percent lower than last year’s revised stocks. The 2017-18 season-average farm price is raised $0.50 per bushel at the midpoint to a projected range of $4.40 to $5.20.
Global Trade
2017-18 wheat exports are increased on higher exports for Russia and Turkey more than offsetting reductions for the EU, Paraguay, and Ukraine. Imports are projected lower for several countries with Turkey showing the largest reduction on a significantly larger crop. Total world consumption is projected higher, primarily on greater use by Russia on increased supplies. Global ending stocks are projected lower at 260.6 million tons, down marginally from last month.
World Wheat Production(In million tonnes)
--change--
--2017/2018-- --2016/2017-- Jul 17/18 Jul 17/18
Jul Jun Jul Jun Jun 17/18 Jul 16/17
World 737.83 739.53 754.31 754.10 -1.7 -16.5
United States 47.89 49.64 62.86 62.86 -1.8 -15.0
Total Foreign 689.94 689.89 691.45 691.24 0.1 -1.5
EU-27 150.00 150.75 145.47 145.47 -0.8 4.5
China 130.00 131.00 128.85 128.85 -1.0 1.2
South Asia
India 96.00 96.00 87.00 87.00 0.0 9.0
Pakistan 26.20 26.20 25.60 25.60 0.0 0.6
Afghanistan 5.00 5.00 5.10 5.10 0.0 -0.1
Nepal 1.78 1.78 1.72 1.72 0.0 0.1
Former Soviet Union - 12
Russia 72.00 69.00 72.53 72.53 3.0 -0.5
Ukraine 24.00 25.00 26.80 26.80 -1.0 -2.8
Kazakhstan 13.00 13.00 14.99 14.99 0.0 -2.0
Uzbekistan 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 0.0 0.0
Belurus 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 0.0 0.0
Canada 28.35 28.35 31.70 31.70 0.0 -3.4
South America
Argentina 17.50 17.50 17.00 17.00 0.0 0.5
Brazil 5.60 5.60 6.73 6.73 0.0 -1.1
Uruguay 0.70 0.70 0.78 0.78 0.0 -0.1
Australia 23.50 25.00 35.11 35.00 -1.5 -11.6
Africa
Egypt 8.10 8.10 8.10 8.10 0.0 0.0
Morocco 5.80 5.80 2.73 2.73 0.0 3.1
Ethiopia 4.20 4.20 3.90 3.90 0.0 0.3
Algeria 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 0.0 0.5
Middle East
Turkey 19.50 18.00 17.25 17.25 1.5 2.3
Iran 15.00 15.00 15.50 15.50 0.0 -0.5
Iraq 4.03 4.03 4.23 4.23 0.0 -0.2
Syria 2.20 2.20 2.40 2.40 0.0 -0.2
Mexico 3.65 3.65 3.88 3.88 0.0 -0.2
Others 21.53 21.73 22.29 22.19 -0.2 -0.8
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