MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - In 2016-17, the world cotton area is forecast to fall by 1 percent to 30 million hectares, which is the smallest amount of area under cotton since 2009/10, when the planted area reached 29.7 million hectares.
The average yield is projected to improve by 9 percent to 753 kg/ha, and world production in 2016-17 is expected to increase by 7 percent to 22.6 million tonnes. Cotton area in India contracted by 8 percent, to just under 11 million hectares, due to competition from other crops such as maize. However, a 9 percent increase in the average yield to 526 kg/ha will likely offset the losses in area and production is expected to remain stable at 5.8 million tonnes.
China’s cotton production is projected down 4 percent to 4.6 million tonnes despite a 3 percent gain in the average yield to 1,600 kg/ha. The total area brought under cotton in China shrank by 7 percent to 2.8 million hectares, the lowest in more than 30 years.
Higher cotton prices compared to competing crops at the time of planting led to a 20 percent increase in cotton area in the United States, estimated at 3.9 million hectares. Beneficial weather during the growing season is expected to lead to a 5 percent improvement in the average yield to 899 kg/ha. As a result, cotton production in the United States is forecast to increase by 25 percent to 3.5 million tonnes.
Although the cotton area in Pakistan declined by 12 percent to 2.5 million hectares, its production in 2016-17 is projected to rise by 26 percent to 1.9 million tonnes as the national average yield increases by 43 percent to 756 kg/ha due to the success of the preventative measures taken against pink bollworm. Improved yields in Brazil could increase its cotton production by 7 percent to 1.4 million tonnes.
In 2016-17, world cotton consumption is forecast to remain unchanged from 2015-16 at 23.8 million tonnes, but is projected to exceed production by 1.3 million tonnes. As a result, world stocks are projected to decline by 7 percent to 18.1 million tonnes.
Although China’s consumption is forecast to decline for the seventh consecutive season by 2 percent to 7.2 million tonnes, it will continue to be the world’s largest consumer of cotton. Although domestic cotton prices have fallen since China implemented its direct production subsidy policy, they remain above levels on the international market and well above polyester prices.
India’s cotton consumption is projected to remain stable at 5.2 million tonnes as mills increase the share of other fibers in cotton-blended yarns. Pakistan’s mill use is expected to increase by 23,000 tonnes to 2.3 million tonnes, assuming that the energy situation improves.
Exports from the United States are projected to increase by 26 percent to 2.5 million tonnes while exports from India, the second largest exporter, are forecast to fall by 35 percent to 820,000 tonnes. Bangladesh is expected to remain the world’s largest importer as its volume increases by 10 percent to 1.2 million tonnes in order to satisfy growing demand. Similarly, Vietnam’s imports are projected to rise by 15 percent to 1.1 million tonnes.
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(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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