MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - A rise in 2016-17 U.S cotton production of 14.8 million bales (480lb each) is expected to boost next season’s ending stocks well above the beginning level.
Production is anticipated to rise 15 percent from 2015-16, based on 9.6 million planted acres as indicated in Prospective Plantings, combined with below-average abandonment, due to relatively favorable moisture, and average yields.
Domestic mill use is projected stable at 3.6 million bales, while exports are expected to rise to 10.5 million, on higher available supplies and more marketable qualities.
Ending stocks are projected at 4.7 million bales, or one-third of total use. The preliminary range for the marketing year average price received by producers is 47.0 to 67.0 cents per pound.
For 2015/16, U.S. cotton production is increased marginally. The export forecast is reduced to 9.0 million bales, reflecting lower-than-anticipated export sales to date, with ending stocks raised accordingly.
World 2016-17 Cotton Supply-Demand
The world 2016-17 cotton projections show a decline in stocks of more than 6.0 million bales, as consumption exceeds production for the second consecutive season.
Global production is expected to rise nearly 5 percent, despite marginally lower area, as yields recover from weather and pest pressures that affected crops in 2015-16.
Production is forecast to rise mainly in Pakistan, the United States, India, and Turkey, partially offset by a 1.3-million-bale reduction for China.
Global consumption is projected to rise 1.6 percent, as prices overall remain low and mills in China gain access to domestic cotton at more competitive prices.
Projected world trade is lowered slightly from 2015-16 as increased production, especially in Pakistan, reduces reliance on imports.
Ending stocks are projected at 96.5 million bales, 87 percent of world consumption. Falling China stocks exceed the projected global decline while stocks outside of China show a slight increase. Despite the projected decrease, China stocks are equivalent to nearly 170 percent of China’s total disappearance.
India 2016-17 Supply-Demand
USDA projected India 2016-17 beginning stocks at 10.89 million bales vs 11.46 million bales due to projected lower crop and better exports than a year ago.
India cotton production in 2016-17 forecast to rise over 10 percent at 29.5 million bales as against 26.80 million bales in 2015-16 amid prospects of better monsoon that may enhance yield.
However exports in 2016-17 likely to drop sharply 27 percent at 4.2 million bales compared with 5.75 million bales a year ago as demand is likely to be lackluster from China and expected rise in Pakistan output may result lesser import.
Pakistan cotton production to jump up to 9 million bales versus 7 million in 2015-16, while imports were projected to 1.7 million bales in 2016-17 as against 3.1 million last year.
Note: May Represents To 2016-17 Supply-Demand
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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