USDA Revises 2015-16 World Cotton Production Estimate Lower

MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol)- The world cotton 2015-16 supply and demand forecasts include lower estimated beginning stocks and production combined with slightly higher consumption, resulting in a 1.1-million-bale (480lb each) reduction in ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered about 300,000 bales, mainly for Greece and Malaysia on historical revisions, partly offset by an increase for Brazil. World production is reduced 400,000 bales, with reductions in Cote d’Ivǒire, Mali, and Brazil. Consumption is raised for China and Pakistan, but is lowered for Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey. World stocks are now projected at 102.2 million bales.

The U.S. cotton 2015-16 supply and demand forecasts show only marginal changes from last month. Production is decreased 73,000 bales to reflect USDA’s March Cotton Ginning's report. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. With small adjustments to imports and the “unaccounted” residual, ending stocks are lowered 100,000 bales to 3.5 million. The marketing year average price received by producers is expected to fall between 58.0 and 59.0 cents per pound, a reduction of 1.0 cent at the upper end of the range.

USDA Projected World Cotton Supply Balance Sheet 2015-16

2015/16 Proj.		Beginning Stocks	Production	Imports	Domestic Use	Exports	Loss /2	Ending Stocks
World	Mar	112.17	100.22	34.92	109.21	34.9	-0.15	103.34
	Apr	111.88	99.8	34.89	109.59	34.84	-0.08	102.22
United States	Mar	3.7	12.94	0.01	3.6	9.5	-0.05	3.6
	Apr	3.7	12.87	0.04	3.6	9.5	0.01	3.5
Total Foreign	Mar	108.47	87.28	34.91	105.61	25.4	-0.11	99.74
	Apr	108.18	86.93	34.85	105.99	25.34	-0.09	98.72
		filler	filler	filler	filler	filler	filler	filler
Major Exporters 4/	Mar	29.47	48.56	1.57	32.21	22.4	-0.23	25.22
	Apr	29.54	48.18	1.46	32.18	22.36	-0.23	24.87
Central Asia 5/	Mar	2.45	5.65	3/	2.5	3.85	0	1.75
	Apr	2.45	5.65	3/	2.5	3.85	0	1.75
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/	Mar	2.03	4.81	3/	0.14	5.13	0	1.56
	Apr	2	4.54	3/	0.14	4.79	0	1.6
S. Hemis 7/	Mar	11.22	10.69	0.22	4.26	7.62	-0.24	10.48
	Apr	11.32	10.59	0.21	4.26	7.67	-0.24	10.43
Australia	Mar	1.78	2.5	3/	0.04	2.75	-0.1	1.59
	Apr	1.78	2.5	3/	0.04	2.75	-0.1	1.59
Brazil	Mar	7.43	6.7	0.05	3.2	4.2	-0.15	6.93
	Apr	7.53	6.6	0.05	3.2	4.3	-0.15	6.83
India	Mar	13.49	26.8	0.9	24.5	5.5	0	11.19
	Apr	13.49	26.8	0.8	24.5	5.75	0	10.84
		filler	filler	filler	filler	filler	filler	filler
Major Importers 8/	Mar	77.02	35.74	31.2	69.07	2.08	0.12	72.69
	Apr	76.8	35.77	31.25	69.47	2.08	0.14	72.14
Mexico	Mar	0.74	0.95	0.98	1.9	0.15	0.03	0.59
	Apr	0.69	0.91	0.98	1.9	0.15	0.03	0.5
China	Mar	67.92	23.8	5	32	0.2	0	64.52
	Apr	67.92	23.8	5	32.5	0.2	0	64.02
European Union 9/	Mar	0.5	1.2	0.86	0.88	1.22	0.03	0.44
	Apr	0.33	1.28	0.86	0.87	1.22	0.05	0.33
Turkey	Mar	1.6	2.65	3.8	6.4	0.25	0	1.4
	Apr	1.6	2.65	3.75	6.3	0.25	0	1.45
Pakistan	Mar	2.84	7	2.3	9.6	0.25	0.03	2.26
	Apr	2.84	7	2.9	10.1	0.25	0.03	2.36
Indonesia	Mar	0.6	0.01	3.1	3.15	0.01	0	0.55
	Apr	0.6	0.01	2.7	2.75	0.01	0	0.55
Thailand	Mar	0.22	3/	1.43	1.4	0	0.03	0.22
	Apr	0.22	3/	1.43	1.4	0	0.03	0.22
Bangladesh	Mar	1.28	0.13	5.75	5.85	0	0.01	1.3
	Apr	1.28	0.13	5.65	5.75	0	0.01	1.3
Vietnam	Mar	0.7	3/	5.2	5.1	0	0	0.8
	Apr	0.7	3/	5.2	5.1	0	0	0.8

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)