MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest forecast, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) stated that other Asian countries, barring China, are likely to increase cotton imports in 2015-16 as China’s market share declined significantly.
ICAC said that China will likely remain the world’s largest importer in 2015/16, but its share of world imports has fallen from 55% in 2011/12 to 22% in 2014/15 and may only reach 17% in 2015/16.
In 2015/16, Asian imports excluding China are expected to reach 4.5 million tons, representing 60% of world imports.
Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia are the three largest importers in the region outside of China. Imports by Bangladesh may slightly exceed one million tons in 2015/16, up 4% from last season, while imports by Vietnam are projected up 5% to 990,000 tons.
After declining in 2013/14, imports by Indonesia increased 13% to 735,000 tons in 2014/15 and may reach 780,000 tons in 2015/16, said ICAC.
Forecasting consumption in the current season, the committee added that mill use in Asia outside of China is forecast to rise by 4% to 12 million tons, representing 48% of world consumption projected at 25 million tons in 2015/16.
Similarly, mill use in India is expected to rise 3%, reaching 5.6 million tons while in Pakistan mill use is likely to rise to 2.6 million tons, up 2% from 2014/15.
The ICAC projected 2015/16 world cotton production at 23.92 million tons compared to 23.84 million tons estimated last month. Global consumption is pegged at 25.05 million tons compared to 25.03 million tons estimated a month ago.
World imports are pegged at 7.47 million tons, while exports are seen at around 7.47 million tons, bringing ending stocks to 20.73 million tons.
Last month, China announced that its 2016 cotton import quota would be limited to 894,000 tons, same as in 2015, in order to encourage consumption of domestically produced cotton. Cotton production in China is estimated at 5.4 million tons in 2015/16 and the Chinese government still holds around 11 million tons in its reserves.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015532)