MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - After falling as much as 48 percent in 2014/15, India’s cotton exports are projected to recover 34 percent to 1.2 million tons in 2015/16, as per International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
The U.S. is likely to lead in export volume, although its exports are projected down 9 percent to 2.2 million tons due to a smaller volume of production in 2015/16. Exports in the next three largest exporting countries are likely to decrease due to reductions in their exportable surplus. Brazil’s exports are forecast down 10 percent to 766,000 tons, Uzbekistan’s down 5 percent to 565,000 tons and Australia’s down 10 percent to 467,000 tons, as per ICAC.
Global imports are forecast to remain unchanged at 7.6 million tons in 2015/16. Though China’s imports are forecast to fall 12 percent to 1.6 million tons in 2015/16, it is likely to remain the leading importer during the season.
Imports by other countries are expected to grow 4 percent to 5.8 million tons. Imports in Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Indonesia, the next three largest importing countries, are all projected to grow in 2015/16. Bangladesh imports are forecast to increase 1 percent to 972,000 tons while Vietnam’s imports are forecast up 2 percent to 956,000 tons.
World cotton production is expected to fall by 9 percent to 23.8 million tons in 2015/16 compared to 26.11 million tons in 2014/15. India’s cotton area is estimated down 5 percent to 11.6 million hectares, and production down 2 percent to 6.4 million tons. China’s cotton production is set to decline by 16 percent to 5.4 million tons due to a 12 percent reduction in area and a 5 percent decrease in the average yield as a result of unfavorable weather. After a 24 percent expansion in 2014/15, cotton area in the United States has receded 13 percent to 3.3 million hectares with production declining 11 percent to 3.2 million tons. Pakistan’s production is projected down 11 percent to 2.1 million.
World cotton consumption could grow 2 percent in 2015/16 to 25 million tons with consumption growth remaining flat or slowing in many countries compared with last season. Consumption in China, the largest cotton consuming country, is expected to remain flat in 2015/16 at 7.7 million tons. India’s consumption growth is expected to slow to 3 percent, reaching 5.6 million tons, while Pakistan’s consumption growth remains steady at 2 percent, reaching 2.6 million tons.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015532)
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