NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest February report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 118.45 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 118.74 million bales projected in December.
The 2018-19 world production is projected 300,000 bales lower than in December as smaller crops in Turkey, India, Burkina Faso and the United States offset increases in China, Brazil, Pakistan, and Australia.
World trade is estimated higher by 600,000 bales as higher imports by China, Turkey, and Pakistan more than offset declines in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Exports rose for Brazil, Benin, and India, but fell for Turkey and Burkina Faso.
World ending stocks are projected up to 75.50 million bales as compared to 73.19 million bales estimated in December.
"World 2018/19 ending stocks are now 2.3 million bales above their previous estimate, with a 2-million-bale increase for China," the USDA said in its report.
The agency has also increased world 2018-19 beginning stocks projection at 81.05 million bales from 80.45 million bales estimated in December.
"Lower 2017/18 India mill use is largely responsible for a 600,000-bale increase in world 2018/19 beginning stocks," the agency said. Global use is reduced by 2 million bales, with smaller declines in Vietnam, Turkey, and the United States.
However, global consumption is estimated down at 123.64 million bales from 125.63 million bales largely due to a decline of 1.0-million-bale for China and 0.5-million-bale for India.
India
The agency has lowered India's 2018-19 production estimate at 27 million bales from 27.50 million bales. The agency has also lowered India's consumption projections at 24.80 million bales from 25.30 million bales.
However, it raised its forecast for India's cotton exports at 4.50 million bales from 4.40 million bales in December.
The USDA also revised upwards its forecast for India's beginning and ending stocks at 9.23 million bales and 8.53 million bales than 8.68 million bales and 8.08 million bales, respectively. As far as India's imports are concerned the agency has retained its estimate at 1.60 million bales.
United States
The report has revised down its estimates for US production, mill use and ending stocks relative to December.
US production for the 2018 crop is estimated at 18.39 million bales from 18.59 million bales, mainly due to small declines outside the Southeast.
"Ending stocks and mill use are reduced 100,000 bales each, while exports are unchanged," the USDA report said.
The forecast for the marketing-year average price received by producers is reduced 2 cents per pound, to a midpoint of 72 cents.
USDA-2018-19 (February)/(December)/2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-81.05/80.45/80.40
Production-118.45/118.74/123.69
Import-42.31/41.71/40.93
Consumption-123.64/125.63/122.58
Export-42.32/41.73/40.92
Ending Stock-75.50/73.19/81.05
INDIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-9.23/8.68/7.88
Production-27/27.50/29
Import-1.60/1.60/1.68
Consumption-24.80/25.30/24.15
Export-4.50/4.40/5.18
Ending Stock-8.53/8.08/9.23
US (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-4.30/4.30/2.75
Production-18.39/18.59/20.92
Import-0.01/0.01/Nil
Consumption-3.20/3.30/3.23
Export-15/15/15.85
Ending Stock-4.30/4.30/4.30
CHINA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-38.02/38.02/45.92
Production-27.50/27/27.50
Import-7.50/7/5.73
Consumption-40.50/41.50/41
Ending Stock-32.37/30.37/38.02
BRAZIL (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-8.66/8.66/6.93
Production-11.40/11/9.22
Consumption-3.50/3.50/3.40
Export-6.20/5.80/4.17
Ending Stock-10.48/10.43/8.66
PAKISTAN (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.83/2.83/2.32
Production-7.50/7.40/8.20
Import-3/2.90/3.30
Consumption-10.60/10.60/10.80
Export-0.13/0.15/0.16
Ending Stock-2.58/2.36/2.83
BANGLADESH (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.86/1.86/1.63
Production-0.14/0.14/0.14
Import-8/8.10/7.60
Consumption-8/8/7.50
Ending Stock-1.98/2.08/1.86
VIETNAM (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.19/1.19/0.88
Import-7.40/7.60/6.90
Consumption-7.30/7.50/6.60
Ending Stock-1.29/1.29/1.19
AUSTRALIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.94/2.94/2.19
Production-2.60/2.50/4.70
Export-3.60/3.60/3.92
Ending Stock-1.90/1.81/2.94
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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