MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2019-20 pea exports may slip to 2.9 million tonnes (Mt), according to AAFC’s March outlook.
However, estimates of exports for 2018-19 have been kept unchanged at 3.1 million tonnes with China, Bangladesh and the US ranking as top three markets.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease sharply, due to a stronger export demand and lower supply. The average price is expected to rise from 2017-18, mostly due to higher prices for green peas.
Monthly exports of dry peas have been higher than the five-year average since November, mostly due to increased exports to China.
Production of the winter pulse crop in India is forecast by the Government of India at 15 Mt, down only marginally from the record crop set the previous year. If this level of production is realized, Canadian dry pea export demand to India is expected to remain limited throughout the remainder of the crop year.
During the month of March, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan fell $20/t while the green pea price rose $25/t. Green pea prices have had a $200/t premium over yellow pea prices in the month of March. For the entire crop year, green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a $145/t premium over yellow peas, compared to a $40/t premium in 2017-18.
For 2019-20, seeded area is expected to increase marginally from the previous year to 1.5 Mha, due to higher returns relative to other crops and above average export demand. Trend yields and higher area are expected to cause production to increase marginally to 3.7 Mt. However, supply is forecast to fall marginally to 4.1, due to lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to be lower at 2.9 Mt, and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease. The average price is expected to remain unchanged from 2018-19 due to expectations for similar world supply.
The USDA March Prospective Planting report showed that US area seeded to dry peas for 2019-20 is forecast at nearly 0.9 million acres, up marginally from 2018-19. This is largely due to an expected increase in Montana area.
Lentils
For 2018-19, Canadian lentil exports (August to January) total about 1.0 Mt, sharply higher than this time in 2017-18. Crop year exports are forecast at 1.7 Mt with the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Bangladesh and India currently the top export markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall due to increased export demand. The overall average price is forecast to fall due to a burdensome carry-out stocks.
During the month of March, the on-farm price of large green and red lentils in Saskatchewan decreased by $40/t. The average price for large green lentils is forecast to maintain a $70/t premium over red lentil prices, compared to a record C$340/t premium to red lentils in 2017-18.
For 2019-20, area seeded in Canada is expected to decrease to 1.45 Mha, due to lower expected returns for all green lentil types compared to the previous spring. With higher yields, production is forecast to rise marginally to 2.1 Mt but supply is expected to decrease marginally to 2.9 Mt due to a decrease in carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher at 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease sharply which will be supportive for prices. The average price for all grades is forecast to rise from 2018-19.
The USDA March Prospective Planting report showed that US area seeded to lentils is expected to decrease by 29% from last year to 0.55 million acres.
Area seeded is expected to fall sharply in Montana.
Dry Beans
For 2018-19, despite an increase in domestic supply, exports are expected to fall to 345 thousand tonnes (kt). The US and the EU remain the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Mexico and Japan. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to increase due to the smaller supply in North America. To-date (August-March), white pea bean prices are 15% higher, pinto bean prices are 10% higher and black bean prices are also 5% higher than in 2017-18.
For 2019-20, the area seeded is forecast to rise from 2018-19 to 145 thousand hectares (kha) because of higher potential returns compared to other crops.
Production is expected to rise marginally to 345 kt due to a return to trend yields. Supply is expected to rise due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be slightly higher with steady demand from the US and the EU. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase sharply. The average price of dry beans is forecast to be similar to the previous year.
The USDA March Prospective Planting report indicated that the intended US area seeded to dry beans (excluding chickpeas) is forecast to increase marginally to 1.2 million acres, largely due to higher seeded area in North Dakota.
Chickpeas
For 2018-19, a fall in demand from the EU and the US has resulted in a decrease in the forecast for Canadian exports. Pakistan and the US are the main markets for Canadian chickpeas. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply. The average price is forecast to be significantly lower than the previous year, largely due to the large increase in North American and world supply.
For 2019-20, the area seeded is forecast to fall sharply from 2018-19 because of higher carry-in stocks and the potential for lower returns relative to other crops. As a result, production is expected to decrease to 130 Kt. Supply is forecast to decrease slightly from last year due the burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise this year and carry-out stocks are expected to fall marginally relative to the previous year. The average price is forecast to be unchanged, due to expectations for ample world supply.
The area seeded to chickpeas is estimated by the USDA to fall to 0.5 million acres, down 40% from 2018-19. This is largely due to a sharp decline in area seeded in Montana, Washington and Idaho.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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