MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canadian lentil exports for the August to November period totalled 0.6 Mt, 15% more than the amount exported during the same period in 2017. India imported the largest portion to-date at 0.1 Mt. The leading export market, after India, is the United Arab Emirates, followed by Bangladesh and Mexico. Total Canadian lentil exports for 2018-19 are forecast to rise to 1.7 Mt, despite lentil import duties imposed by India. The supply of lentils in Canada is estimated to be marginally higher than last year as higher carry-in stocks was partly offset by the lower production. With the marginally higher supply and an increase in exports, this is expected to lead to lower but still burdensome carry-out stocks which will continue to pressure prices throughout 2018-19.
The overall average price range is forecast to fall sharply from last year to $375 to 405/t. Weak prices for all lentil types have been offset by an above average grade distribution. As a result, there have been lower discounts for the lower grades for all green lentil types. Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of $100/t above the price of No.1 red lentils over the crop year, compared to a $340/t premium in 2017-18.
US lentil production, mostly green types, is estimated at 0.4 Mt, up 18% from the previous year. Despite this, Canadian lentil exports to the US are forecast at a record 70 kt for 2018-19.
For 2019-20, area seeded in Canada is expected to fall 11% to 1.35 Mha, due to weak prices for the No.1 grades the previous year. Production is forecast to fall by 4% to 2.0 Mt. With lower carry-in stocks, supply is expected to fall to 2.8 Mt, the lowest since 2014-15. Exports are forecast to rise from 2018-19 to 1.8 Mt with a lower exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply. With the assumption of an average grade distribution and grade discounts, the overall lentil price is forecast to rise from 2018-19.
| Lentils |
| CANADA: PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION (January 24, 2019) |
| Grain and Crop Year (a) |
Area Seeded |
Area Harvested |
Yield |
Production |
Imports (b) |
Total Supply |
Exports (b) |
Total Domestic Use (c) |
Carry-out Stocks |
Stocks-to- Use Ratio |
Average Price (d) |
| |
------ thousand ha ------ |
t/ha |
--------------------------------- thousand tonnes ---------------------------------- |
% |
$//t |
| 2017-2018 |
1,783 |
1,774 |
1.44 |
2,559 |
35 |
2,908 |
1,537 |
495 |
876 |
43 |
475 |
| 2018-2019f |
1,525 |
1,499 |
1.40 |
2,092 |
15 |
2,984 |
1,700 |
484 |
800 |
37 |
375-405 |
| 2019-2020f |
1,350 |
1,335 |
1.50 |
2,000 |
20 |
2,820 |
1,800 |
485 |
535 |
23 |
390-420 |
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015513)
|
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