CFTC Report: COMEX Copper: Market Sentiment Probably Turning Bearish Again

COMEX Copper: Market Sentiment Probably Turning Bearish Again

Mumbai (Commoditiescontrol): Commitment of Traders Report – 2 April 2016

Commitment of Traders Report was released on 1 April 2016. Positions reported are as on 29 March 2016

Rounding off errors may be present in calculations.

Copper – COMEX

COMEX Copper	Total Open Interest	Percentage Change	Total Reportable
Open Interest
			Change in Long Positions	Change in Short Positions	Net (Long-Short)	Net (Long-Short)Prev Week
All	187372	4.37	7369	8227	-880	-22

Source: CFTC; CC Info

Total open interest for the week ended 29th March stood at 187372 lots higher by 4.37 percent. Addition was seen in both long and short positions with greater addition to short positions. Net market position was that of being short with number of short positions increasing week on week.

COMEX Copper	Total Open Interest	Total Open Interest Futures Only	Total Open Interest Options Only	Percentage of Futures in Open Interest	Percentage of Options in Open Interest
	187372	186775	597	99.68	0.32

Source: CFTC; CC Info

Futures segment continued to dominate the copper market with 99.68 percent in futures trade accounting for open interest. Options accounted for a meager 0.32 percent.

COMEX Copper	Hedgers Percentage of Open Interest	Swap Dealers Percentage of Open Interest	Money Managers Percentage of Open Interest	Other Reportable Percentage of Open Interest	Non Reportable Percentage of Open Interest
	26.98	15.44	22.50	26.33	8.75

Source: CFTC; CC Info

Hedgers position decreased week on week from 27.52 percent of open interest to 26.98 percent. However they continued to hold the maximum number of open interest in the markets with other reportable segment not far behind at 26.33 percent. Money Managers were at the third position in the market with 22.50 percent.

COMEX Copper	Commercials
Open Interest	Hedgers			Swap Dealers
	Change in Long Positions	Change in Short Positions	Net (Long-Short)	Change in Long Positions	Change in Short Positions	Net (Long-Short)	Net Spreading Positions
All	2933	-195	-39641	393	-720	43073	248

Source: CFTC; CC Info

Hedgers continued to be net short in the market this week as well. However unlike last week they were reducing short positions and adding to long positions.

Swap Dealers too were net long in the market this week. They too unlike last week where they added positions in all three categories, added only to long and calendar spread positions. Short positions were reduced.

COMEX Copper	Non-Commercials
Open Interest	Managed Money				Other Reportable
	Change in Long Positions	Change in Short Positions	Net (Long-Short)	Net Spreading Positions	Change in Long Positions	Change in Short Positions	Net (Long-Short)	Net Spreading Positions
All	722	2660	21073	-965	4337	7499	-25386	-300

Source: CFTC; CC Info

Managed money continued to be net long in the market. This week they were adding to long and short positions with larger addition to short positions. Calendar spread positions were being reduced. Last week they were seen reducing long positions and addition was seen to calendar spread positions while addition to shorts was a meager 55 lots.

Other reportable segment continued to be net short this week. Like money managers, they were adding to both long and short positions with larger addition to shorts. Calendar spread positions saw marginal reduction. Last week they were seen reducing short positions. Addition to calendar spread positions were seen while addition to long position was nominal.

COMEX Copper	Non- Reportable Positions
Open Interest
	Change in Long Positions	Change in Short Positions	Net (Long-Short)
All	477	-380	879

Source: CFTC; CC Info

Non- reportable positions continued to be net long this week and were seen adding further to long positions and reducing short positions. Last week they were reducing both long and short positions. Reduction in short positions was larger than reduction in long positions.

Percentage of Open Interest Held by 4 or Less Traders
	Long	Short
All	15.3	24.5

Source: CFTC; CC Info

4 or less large traders had more short positions as compared to long positions this week.



Source: CFTC; CC Info

Outlook

Increase in net short position in the market was clearly on account non commercials – money managers and other reportable segment adding to shorts in large numbers. Hedgers who take positions to offset loss in physical trade were seen adding to long positions.



Prices were seen only declining last week from a closing high of $2.2460 and closed down at $2.1630 on Friday.



Volumes as seen in the chart above were on the lower side when prices were high and fall in prices saw volumes increase. Open interest clearly moved higher as prices moved lower.

Thus with almost all segment of the market expecting prices to move lower as seen with commercials who hedge positions add to longs and non commercials who invest in the market adding shorts in large numbers there are indications of the market sentiment turning bearish once again. The same is being confirmed with volumes and open interest increasing as prices moved lower and hence the coming week would see prices hit lower lows.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015523)