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CFTC COT Report: Soybean Meal: Near term price direction downward, Medium term unclear

6 Feb 2016 4:47 pm
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Mumbai (Commoditiescontrol): Commitment of Traders Report – 6 February 2016

Commitment of Traders Report was released yesterday 6 February 2016. Positions reported are as on 2 February 2016

Soybean Meal – CBOT


CBOT Soy Bean Meal

Total Open Interest

Percentage Change

Total Reportable

Open Interest

Change in Long Positions

Change in Short Positions

Net (Long-Short)

All

470699

-1.09

-7999

-6504

-14707

Futures starting in October and before

402144

-1.61

-8701

-7631

-12670

Subsequent Futures

68555

2.06

702

1126

-2036


(Futures starting October and before represents the old crop. Subsequent futures represent the new crop)


Soybean Meal saw reduction in open interest in the old crop contracts and addition of open interest in the new crop contracts. Market was net short in soy bean meal. Addition to both long and short positions were seen in the new crop with shorts outnumbering the longs.

CBOT Soy Bean Meal

Commercials

Open Interest

Hedgers

Swap Dealers

Change in Long Positions

Change in Short Positions

Net (Long-Short)

Change in Long Positions

Change in Short Positions

Net (Long-Short)

Net Spreading Positions

All

-2798

4340

-23193

1899

15

49251

-1437

Futures starting in October and before

-3174

3659

-25724

1841

14

47065

-1553

Subsequent Futures

377

681

2531

30

-27

2186

145


Hedgers were net short in the old crop futures but were net long in the new crop futures. Long positions were reduced and short positions added in the old crop futures. New crop futures saw net long positions. Addition of both long and short positions was seen with short positions being far larger than long.


Swap Dealers were net long with very minimal short positions. Further addition to long positions was seen. Reduction in calendar spread positions were also seen in the old crop futures while new crop futures saw marginal addition in calendar spread positions.

CBOT Soy Bean Meal

Non-Commercials

Open Interest

Managed Money

Other Reportable

Change in Long Positions

Change in Short Positions

Net (Long-Short)

Net Spreading Positions

Change in Long Positions

Change in Short Positions

Net (Long-Short)

Net Spreading Positions

All

-4502

-9625

-33199

498

-1236

128

-7565

-425

Futures starting in October and before

-4322

-9300

-28243

275

-1383

-341

-5768

-384

Subsequent Futures

49

-96

-4956

-5

32

354

-1797

75


Managed money chose to be net short in the market. Old crop futures saw reduction in both long and short positions. However in the new crop futures very nominal addition to longs and reduction from shorts was seen.


Other reportable positions were also net short in the market. Reduction in old crop futures in both long and short positions was witnessed. In the new crop futures, larger additions to short positions were seen as compared to long positions.

CBOT Soy Bean Meal

Non- Reportable Positions

Open Interest

Change in Long Positions

Change in Short Positions

Net (Long-Short)

All

2810

1314

14707

Futures starting in October and before

2126

1056

12670

Subsequent Futures

684

259

2036


Non- reportable positions were net long in the market. Addition to long positions was far larger than addition to short positions.

Percentage of Open Interest Held by 4 or Less Traders

Long

Short

All

9.8

19.9

Futures starting in October and before

10.9

21.5

Subsequent Futures

19.8

30.9


4 or less large trader held larger short positions than long positions.



Source: CFTC

Outlook

Though market is predominantly short, non-reportable positions being long is little intriguing. What is clear is reduction in open interest in old crop futures and lower activity in the new crop futures. Though trend for now is downward, longs in non-reportable positions maybe a give away to price outlook in the medium term. Some clarity in price direction will hopefully be seen by the next COT report.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015523)


       
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