NEW DELHI, Nov 19 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2022-23 canola production is pegged higher by 40 percent from 13.76 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021-22 to 19.10 million tonnes, according to AAFC’s latest November outlook report.
The agency has kept production estimate unchanged from its October forecast.
For 2022-23, canola seeded area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares (Mha), down 4% from last year, with a predicted harvested area of 8.6 Mha. Yields are estimated at 2.23 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) compared to last year’s drought reduced 1.54 t/ha.
Production is projected at 19.1 Mt based on the Statistics Canada’s model-based estimates released on September 14, 2022. By province, Saskatchewan is forecast to grow 9.7 Mt of canola, Alberta 6.1 Mt and Manitoba 3.1 Mt. Harvest is complete across western Canada following a warm and dry fall.
Total supply is forecast to rise sharply from last year to 20.1 Mt, as the increase in production is constrained by tight carry-in.
Usage of Canadian canola is forecast to recover; expected exports are up by about 77% to 9.3 million tonnes (Mt) while domestic crush rises to 10.0 Mt versus 8.6 Mt last year.
The pace of exports to-date is 103% of last year based on Canadian Grain Commission data, with shipments to Mexico, China and Japan accounting for 39%, 37% and 17%, respectively, of the total market share to the end of September. Oil content of Western Canadian canola is averaging 42.7% to-date, based on a survey of 1,369 samples. 94% of Canadian canola is grading Number 1.
Carry-out stocks are down to 0.50 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 3%. Canola prices are forecast to decline to $910/tonne (t) track Vancouver. If realized, this would be the second highest canola price on record.
The 2022-23 outlook remains sensitive to several factors: (i) strength of world import demand for Canadian canola, (ii) pace of domestic crush, (iii) competition from Australian and European rapeseed, (iv) fate of the western United States (US) drought, (v) rate of growth in the biodiesel and alternate vegetable protein markets and (vi) fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)