MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Spot Guarseed prices surged to 15 month high on Monday, January 8, 2018 supported by strong overseas demand for Guargum amid rising crude oil prices. Guarseed at the benchmark Bikaner market was priced at Rs 4,325/100kg, highest level since September 7, 2015.
HIGHLIGHTS
--Spot Guarseed Surges 14.50% In 1-Month; Guargum Up By Over 12%
--Lower Production, Rising Crude Oil Prices, Strong Guargum Export Demand Pushes Price Higher
--Arrivals In Market Lower Against Strong Demand
--Guarseed 2017-18 (Oct-Sept) Production Lower At 50 Lakh Tonnes Vs 80 Lakh Tonnes Last Year
--Guargum Export 2017-18 (Oct-Sept) Likely 25% Up From 3.37 Lakh Tonnes Last Year
--U.S Rigs Count Surges To 924 From 674 Previous Year
--Positive Global Economy May Boost Investment In Oil & Gas Exploration; Positive News For Guargum
GUARSEED ARRIVAL
--Guarseed Arrivals During Oct-Dec 2017 Up 10.30% Y/Y At 31.49 Lakh Bags (100kg Each)
--Guarseed Arrivals Last Year Same Period Was At 28.55 Lakh Tonnes
--Highest Arrivals This Season Witnessed In November Month
--Arrival Pace Declined In December Vs Last Month Due To Slow Farmers, Stockists Selling
--Arrival Is Expected To Decline Ahead As Rising Price May Prompt Sellers To Reduce Selling
BALANCE SHEET
INDIA GUARGUM EXPORT
India Guargum export during 2016-17 (Oct-Sept) surged 55.1% at 3.37 lakh tonnes compared with 2.17 lakh tonnes, and industry experts believes it to rise at least by another 10% in 2017-18, which could reach to 3.70 lakh tonnes.
GUARGUM MONTHLY EXPORT
US RIG COUNT-
GUARGUM CORRELATION
It has been observed from the below chart that export of Guargum mostly follows U.S rig count. Any significant change in U.S. rig count influence export demand.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
BULLISH-BEARISH FACTOR
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)