MUMBAI(Commoditiescontrol)- USDA revised world production upwards to 106.54 million 480lb bales for 2016/17 and 115.36 million 480lb bales for 2017/18 which raises world ending stock forecast for both seasons in the July World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates(WASDE) report.
The world beginning stock for 2017/18 is revised upward to 90.27 million 480lb bales from previous estimate at 89.34 million 480lb bales, owing in large part to an upward revision of 500,000 bales for India’s estimated 2016/17 crop to 27 million 480lb bales (345 lakh 170kg bales).
World 2017/18 production is increased 636,000 bales to 106.54 million 480lb bales, despite the lower expected U.S. crop at 19 million 480lb bales amid drop in acreage to 12.06 million acres from 12.23 million acres, mainly on increased area expectations for India to 11.5 million hectares with production forecasts at 29 million 480lb bales(371 lakh 170kg bales).
The decrease in the US crop projection is attributed mainly to lower planted area as indicated in the June 30 Acreage report, combined with slightly less favorable assumptions about abandonment based on current conditions.
Production is lowered for Pakistan at 9.15 million 480lb bales from previous forecast at 9.3 million 480lb bales while World consumption is also forecast higher in both 2016/17—up nearly 200,000 bales at 113.77 million 480lb bales and 2017/18, up more than 500,000 bales, to 117.03 million 480lb bales.
World 2017/18 ending stocks are now projected at 88.7 million 480lb bales, an increase of 1.0 million from the June forecast.
The projected range of 54 to 68 cents per pound for the marketing year average price received by producers is unchanged on the lower end and reduced 6 cents on the upper end; the midpoint of 61 cents is reduced 3 cents from last month.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)
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