MUMBAI(Commoditiescontrol)- USDA revised world 2017-18 production and consumption however ending stock remains lowest since 2011-12 at 87.7 million 480lb bales.
The World production witnessed minor upward revision by 1.3 percent to 114.73 million 480lb bales as area rebounds to its highest level in 3 years in major producing countries like India, US, and China.
The US cotton projections for 2017/18 show a reduction of 500,000 bales in exports from last month to 13.5 million 480lb bales(246 lakh 170kg bales) as higher anticipated foreign production is expected to reduce exports which is revised downward 3 percent to 3.50 million 480lb bales.
Accordingly, US ending stocks are now projected at 5.5 million 480lb bales which, if realized, would be a 9-year high. The projected range for the 2017/18 marketing year average farm price of 54.0 to 74.0 cents per pound is unchanged from last month, while the price estimate for 2016/17 is reduced marginally to 68.5 cents.
Meanwhile, production in India is expected to rise 5.7 percent to 28 million bales (358 lakh 170kg bales) on account rise in sowing acreage as producers received lucrative prices ranging between Rs 5,200-6,300/quintal for raw cotton in 2016-17. Further, better monsoon forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department will provide tremendous support in obtaining higher yields. Export witnessed downward revision of 6.7 percent to 4.2 million 480lb bales(64 lakh 170kg bales)
Production is raised for Pakistan by 9.4 percent to 9.3 million 480lb bales(119 lakh 170kg bales) and China by 2 percent to 24 million 48lb bales based on higher estimated planted area.
China’s consumption is raised in both 2016/17 and 2017/18, as sales from the national reserve and steady imports suggest that consumption there is stronger than previously estimated.
Surprisingly, US old crop exports is kept unchanged at 14.5 million 480lb bales despite USDA Export Sales commitments surpassing the estimated figure by 2.6 percent to 14.87 million 480lb bales. (Full Report)
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)
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