MUMBAI(Commoditiescontrol)- Global cotton production forecasted to increase 5 percent to 24 million tons (1,364 lakh bales of 170kg each) on a planted area of 30.4 million hectares in 2017-18 due to higher price received by farmers in 2016-17.
In 2016-17, world cotton production is estimated at 22.9 million tons (1,346 lakh bales) while world mill use is projected at 24.3 million tons (1,427 lakh bales), which represents the second consecutive season where mill use has exceeded production.
As a result, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 7 percent to 17.3 million tons (1,055 lakh bales). However, this decline occurs entirely within China where stocks at the end of July 2017 are projected down 17 percent to 9.2 million tons (542 lakh bales). Stocks held outside of China, however, are forecast to rise by 6 percent to 8 million tons (471 lakh bales).
Despite the growth in stocks held outside of China, international cotton prices as measured by the Cotlook A Index have averaged 82 cents/lb from August 2016 through May 2017, which is well above the long-term average of 70 cents/lb.
China State Reserve Auction:
Sales from China’s reserve through May 2017 reached over 1.28 million tons (75.29 lakh bales), which brings the total volume of cotton held by the Chinese government to 7.2 million tons (424 lakh bales).
China’s cotton production declined by 2 percent to 4.9 million tons (288 lakh bales) in 2016-17, but its mill use is projected to increase by 2 percent to 7.7 million tons (453 lakh bales).
Imports by China are anticipated to increase by 10 percent to 1.06 million tons (62.35 lakh bales), which is the first increase since 2011-12, though any further increase is limited by the import quota. Thus, sales from the reserve are being used to make up for the shortfall in production while mill use is forecast to remain unchanged at 7.7 million tons (453 lakh bales) in 2017-18
Production Across The Globe:
Production outside of China is estimated up by 10 percent to 18 million tons (1,059 lakh bales) in 2016-17 and is expected to grow by 5 percent to 19 million tons (1,118 lakh bales) in 2017-18 due to the high prices prevailing this season.
Cotton area in India is forecast to expand by 7 percent to 11.3 million hectares, and assuming yield is similar to the 4-year average of 528 kg/ha, production could increase by 3 percent to 6 million tons (353 lakh bales) in 2017-18.
Farmers in the United States are projected to expand cotton area to 4.6 million hectares with production expected to rise by 12 percent to 4.2 million tons (247 lakh bales). Pakistan’s cotton production is projected to increase by 13 percent to 1.88 million tonnes(111 lakh bales), and if high prices continue through the end of 2017, cotton production in Brazil could increase to 1.5 million tons (88 lakh bales).
Consumption Across the Globe:
After falling by 1 percent to 16.5 million tons in 2016-17, mill use outside of China may increase by 2 percent to 16.9 million tons in 2017-18 due to much stronger growth in the global economy in 2017 and 2018.
Consumption in India is forecast to increase by 3 percent to 5.2 million tons in 2017-18 as prices for cotton and yarn are likely to be competitive due to the increase in supply. Pakistan’s mill use is expected to rise modestly by 1 percent to 2.3 million tons as competition from other mills in Asia remains stiff.
Consumption in Bangladesh is projected to rise by 5 percent to 1.5 million tons while Turkey’s mill use is expected to decline by 15,000 tons to 1.4 million tons due to completion from other countries and weak domestic demand.
Import and Export:
In 2017-18, world trade is expected to remain unchanged from 2016-17 at 8.1 million tons (475 lakh bales). Given that cotton production is projected to grow in the large consuming countries the need to import cotton will likely decrease.
Note: Follow the link embedded on the text to find the Global Country Wise Balance Sheet In Lakh 170kg Bales
.jpg)
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)
0 Comments 
Post Comment 
