MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) – The second advance and the third quarter (October-December) of 2016-17 estimates of GDP released by the Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation appear to have overstated the growth for the quarter and thereby for the whole financial year of 2016-17.
The release states that the the real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in 2016-17 is likely to attain a growth of 6.7 percent as against 7.8 percent in 2015-16. The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0 percent are ‘public administration, defence and other services’, 'manufacturing' and ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in other economic activities is slated to remain below the national average.
The growth in manufacturing pegged at 7.7 percent in 2016-17 appear to have been overestimated as it does not corroborate with the Index of Industrial production for the first nine months of the year. Manufacturing sector has declined 0.5 percent during April-December period while the overall industrial activity had grown by a mere 0.3 per cent.
As against such poor growth, the manufacturing GDP for the entire year is estimated to grow by 7.7 per cent and 8.3 percent in the third quarter of the year, when demonetization of high value currency had disrupted trade and industrial activity and had shrunk consumption expenditure.
Thus, the over estimating of industrial growth, which accounts for 27 per cent of the total economy, raises question on value addition of the sector when physical output is abysmally low.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015522)
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