Tur (Pigeon Pea) Slips Over 11% This Year On Record Production

MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) – Burma lemon tur (pigeon pea) dropped 5.5 percent so far this month and more than 11 percent since December 31, 2016 due to prospects of record crop, slow domestic demand amid lagging effect of demonetisation and good crop in Myanmar. Abundant availability of green vegetable at cheaper rates during winter season has weighed on tur prices as it used as close substitute for tur dal (processed tur). Stock limit on pulses is also acts as deterrent factor.

Burma lemon tur at the key Mumbai pulses market was priced at Rs 4,250/100kg, while in CNF term, Yangon Port (Burma), said to be at $585 per tonne (Rs 41,564.8 per tonne), whereas African origin old tur CNF priced between $525-575 (Rs 35,196-38,548 per tonne). Sudan new crop offered at $615 (Rs 41,229.6) for March delivery and Nigeria at $570-575 (Rs 38,212.8-38,548) for March-April delivery.

Indian buyers may prefer to source overseas tur due to competitive rates.


India government on Wednesday released second advance estimates for 2016-17 crop and pegged tur production at record 42.3 lakh tonnes, sharply up from 25.6 lakh tonnes last year. The production is even much better than government target of 36.2 lakh tonnes thanks to higher prices during sowing period and government support by raising minimum support price to Rs 5,050/100kg (includes Rs 425 bonus) against Rs 4,625 (includes Rs 200 bonus) a year ago.

Tur supply has started in full fledge in all major producing states and higher supplies against slow demand has weighed on prices. Farmers are forced to sell their crop below MSP level. Though government agencies are active in major states, but since the crop is huge they don't have such infrastructure to procure the whole crop arrived in the market.

Further domestic millers, mainly from Delhi prefer to source lemon tur, which is available at attractive rates and quality is also said to be better than domestic origin like Madhya Pradesh.

In order to provide support to tur prices, the government should lift stock limit on pulses and slap 20 percent of duty on pulses import since domestic tur (as well as other pulse crop) crop is more than sufficient to cater domestic demand.

The government should act quickly, otherwise lower prices may prompt farmers next year to shift again to other remunerative crops like cotton, maize, sugarcane, etc.

The fundamentals in tur is bearish and any rise likely to be temporary due to higher supply of new crop in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (MONTHLY CHART)

MUMBAI TOOR LEMON - Last Close 4,250: Trend Continues To Be Down

Trend is down. Expect 3950 and 3675 to be tested. Resistance is at 4500 and 4800.

Conclusion
Trend is down and further weakness to continue. Expect lower range to be tested.

Previous Technical Reports
Technical: Mumbai Lemon Toor - Trend Continues To Be Down (Full Report)
Technical: Mumbai Lemon Toor - Bounce Likely To Happen (Full Report)

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)