Canada 2016-17 Matar (Dry Pea) Output Likely Up From Previous Forecast

MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in September release raised Canada 2016-17 matar (dry pea) production estimate 0.95 percent at 46.55 lakh tonnes from 46.11 lakh tonnes released for August month.

The revise in production numbers was mainly due to better yield which now AAFC projected at 2.74 tonne per hectares from 2.72 tonnes in last release. Matar yield in 2015-16 was at 2.18 tonne per hectares.

Saskatchewan is estimated to account for 46% of the dry pea production, Alberta 49%, with the remainder of the production in Manitoba and British Columbia.

However, total supply is forecast to rise by only 25% to 49 lakh tonne due to the low carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to 32 lakh tonnes, with India, China and Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are also forecast to rise sharply. The average price is expected to fall from 2015-16, due to higher supply and carry-out stocks in Canada.

For 2015-16, exports were 12 percent lower than the 2014-15 level at 27 lakh tonnes as shipments to India and China were marginally lower and exports to Bangladesh and the US fell sharply.

Carry-out stocks in Canada decreased sharply because of a sharp rise in domestic use.

The average dry pea price was a record $365 per tonne due to the tight carry-out stocks in 2015-16. The average crop year prices for green peas and feed peas were higher in 2015-16 than the previous year and yellow pea prices reached a record level. In 2016-17 average price projected at $260-290 per tonne.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2016-17 is forecast by USDA to rise 11% from 2015-16, to a record 13 lakh acres. This is largely due to an expected rise in area in North Dakota. Assuming normal abandonment and normal yields, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to rise sharply to a record 10 lakh tonnes. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to common Canadian exports markets in China and India and it is expected the US will increase its market share in 2016-17.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)