AAFC Revises Canada 2016-17 Lentil Output Better Than Aug Forecast

MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in September forecast projected Canada masoor (Lentil) production slightly higher from what was projected for August estimate due to increase in yield.

AAFC projected 2016-17 masoor production at 32.63 lakh tonnes, 0.89 percent higher from 32.34 lakh tonnes estimated in August due to marginal rise in yield. masoor output in 2015-16 was pegged at 25.41 lakh tonnes.

There was a 45 percent rise in seeded area from 2015-16, with the majority of the increase in red masoor types. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 87 percent of the masoor production, with the remainder in Alberta. However, total supply is forecast to rise by only 15 percent due to low carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to be slightly higher than last year at 22 lakh tonnes. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply to 4 lakh tonnes. The average price is forecast to be significantly lower than 2015-16 due the large supply and expectations for below average quality.

For 2015-16, masoor exports were limited by supply to 21 lakh tonnes, marginally lower than the previous year. Of this total, 15 lakh tonnes were red masoor types with the remaining 6 lakh tonnes consisting of the green masoor types.

Record exports to India and Turkey were offset by lower exports to the rest of the Middle East and South America.

Total domestic use reached record levels at 7 lakh tonnes. Carry-out stocks decreased to the lowest levels since 2009-10.

The average Canadian masoor price was significantly higher than 2014-15 as carry-out stocks tightened sharply. Record No.1 red masoor prices maintained a record crop year premium of $400/t over record No.1 large green masoor prices.

In the US, the area seeded to masoor s for 2016-17 is forecast by the USDA at a record 9 lakh acres, up sharply from 2015-16 due to higher area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2016-17 record US masoor production is therefore forecast by AAFC at a nearly 5 lakh tonnes, up sharply this past year. The main US export markets for masoor s are expected to continue to be India and the EU, particularly Spain.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)