MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - SMERA rating agency believes that domestic production of pulses will exceed 20 million tonnes – the highest production ever since 1957. This is based on the current area sown per crop (year to date) and future outlook of available land and substitute crops. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, area sown under pulses during the Kharif season has already reached a record 136.4 lakh hectare (YTD).
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SMERA expects that an additional 13.2 lakh hectares will be sown by the end of the season taking the total kharif sown area to about 150 lakh hectares. This increase in cultivated area will have a positive impact on production with the kharif pulse crop expected to cross 7.7 million tonnes by year end.
Around 67% of domestic pulse production takes place during the Rabi season and an additional 13 million tonnes are expected to enter the market by the end of Q4 2016-17 and beginning of next financial year. Assuming that the Rabi crop’s seasonal output will be stable, SMERA believes that the two million tonnes of incremental production during the current season will add to the kharif seasonal output. These calculations are based on the current data. With domestic demand for pulses of about 24 million tonnes for the current year, a shortfall of 3.2 million tonnes (three year low) is expected.
India’s agreement with African countries such as Mozambique for import of pulses will further add 5 million tonnes of buffer stock to this aggregate. However, India being the world’s largest consumer of pulses, it is a major driver of global prices and therefore, inflation will continue to gallop to over 20% until domestic supply reaches the market.
The increase of Rs.600 in average pulse MSP (Minimum Support Price) has played a major role in the increase in area sown (under pulse) and eventually higher production. Overall, this season has already seen an increase of 54.8 lakh hectares (sown area) of which pulses has contributed significantly. Furthermore, as compared to 2013-14, when monsoon conditions were similar, pulse has claim 43 lakh hectares of incremental sown area that was traditionally under sugarcane, oilseeds, cotton and cereals.
Taking cues from the current situation, SMERA believes that farmers have strategically planned their cultivations to maximize gains. Rise in pulse MSPs and extraction of higher yields per hectare from sugarcane plantations through the use of technology and fertilizers has extensively helped these agricultural gains.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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