NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) – Raw and processed tur prices slumped unpredictably this month in the domestic market as Burma origin lemon tur witnessed a steep fall by over 24 percent to Rs. 5,900/100kg in the benchmark market of Mumbai. It happened so only due to an apprehension that downfall in prices may persist ahead amid slack demand, high sowing coverage and imports from African countries likely to begin next month. However, market observers foresee a temporary rally in tur prices at this stage now, essentially, shortfall in supply to cater ensuing festive demand for pulses.
Let us clinically examine the factors mainly accountable for bearish trend in tur prices:
Traditionally, demand for pulses increases in festive season. Envisaging this idea, big players as well as small traders together with wholesalers and semi-wholesalers carried out bulk buying in July, as they were anticipating better profit-margin amid higher prices on improved demand, according to trade sources. But scenario changed tur sowing coverage increased to a record level which raised the prospect of bumper production as favorable weather condition will help increase yield as well. This is the reason, selling pressure has escalated as traders are in a hurry to clear their stocks at any rates rational to them. Following which bearish trend is constantly observed.
Small traders, wholesalers and semi-wholesalers have a still sufficient stock, that is why, they are not buying tur dal from millers. But they will restart buying as their stocks are depleting. Of course, a temporary rally will appear with increased offtake of processed tur.
It should be noted that only 20-25 percent of the tur mills are operative at present due to scarcity of raw pulses amid a huge fluctuation in tur prices. Obviously, shortage of tur dal will be seen in near future. If such situation appears, prices of tur dal will rise with proportionate to raw tur.
In a chat with commoditiescontrol, market experts have also expressed that a rally in tur dal prices is expected in the near term. According to them, imported tur from African counties will reach India by the end of September and it will take a while for tur dal to hit the retail counters after taking a due course in milling and drying process. Besides, difficulties are faced in milling tur during rainy weather as it takes time in drying. Hence, there is much possibility of rally in tur dal amid scanty stocks.
Analyzing the above circumstances, if appear accordingly, it would be a wise decision clear the stocks at higher level taking profit because there is much possibility of a record production of tur in the country if weather condition remains favourable till harvesting season. Apart from this imports of tur from Burma and African countries will also escalate pressure on prices. Meanwhile experts are anticipating new tur crop rates at the time of arrival at level of Rs 5,000/100kg.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)