MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) – Chana prices rose 62 percent so far this year and 11 percent within last week only driven mainly by lower production that has resulted a tight domestic balance sheet.
A tight balance sheet is visible from above table which clearly reflects the supply would remain tight during the lean season and overall the carry-out to decline significantly as compared to last year. Thus, overall prices are expected to remain tight during the MY 2016 (Jan-Dec).
However, looking at the global crop scenario which looks very promising this year and the crop in Australia and in other countries like Russia, Turkey etc. are reportedly very higher. Thus, a global over supply scenario will arise moving forward. Aiding to this if the domestic Kharif crop scenario also remains good as it was expected then long term scenario of chana would remain bearish.
|
Attribute (in Lakh MT)
|
2015
|
2016
|
Change
|
|
Total Supply (Includes domestic crop, carry-in and Imports)
|
73.16
|
67.17
|
-8%
|
|
Total Demand (Domestic and Export)
|
72.09
|
67.08
|
-7%
|
|
Carry –out
|
1.07
|
0.09
|
-92%
|
Source: Trade Estimate
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (CHANA DELHI RAJASTHAN LINE) (Price in Rs/100kg)
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Wave c can end at current level or on rise to 7413. Indicators like RSI and Stochastic are in overbought zone. Near term to short term correction can happen from current level or 7413.
Support is at 6650 and correction can happen below. Volatility can take the correction to the upper channel line which is around 6600.
For the time being trend is up and 161.8% projection is at 7413 therefore profit booking pressure could happen. In the event of a sustained rise and close above 7413 with bullish candle then expect a rally to 10500.
For the time being look at 7413 as the resistance and profit booking pressure possible for minor correction.
Conclusion /Strategy
Short to medium term view would be to take profits and on sufficient correction once begin may look at accumulation and the same could be reviewed later.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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