MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Most pulses remained under pressure last week ended Saturday on slow demand in raw/processed pulses at the higher level, fear of government action and forecast of good monsoon.
Chana (Chickpea): Chana started the week with a firm note and mostly traded range bound during the period with slightly weak tone. Close watch of government on prices of pulses as well as raids conducted by civil supplies department in various parts of MP and Delhi keeping a lid on rising prices besides the talks that government would ban chana futures trading. Weak demand from end users (retail and consumers) also restricted the chana prices to move up. Thus, as per the aforesaid prices may remain range bound with slightly weak tone in short term. However, medium to long term fundamentals mainly tight supply situation pointing for a firm market. Meanwhile, the key growing regions of Australia which was facing moisture stress, may get good rains by 1st week of June which would remain supportive for increased chana cultivation. Already, the preliminary estimates are pointing that the farmers in Australia are much inclined for chana cultivation amid expectation of higher prices on increased demand from India and other countries.
Matar (Pea): peas prices also moving in tandem with chana and mostly traded range bound with slightly weak tone. Slowdown in demand from major consuming centre, Kanpur besides the others mostly kept prices in ranged manner. Meanwhile, as the season progresses, prices may witness some correction mainly on expected higher crop internationally. Peas production in countries like France, Russia and Ukraine is expected to increase besides Canada on higher prices globally which would lead to excess supply and would pressure prices both national and internationally. The imports from France, Russia and Ukraine are expected from July onwards and thereafter Canadian imports will start coming from Sept.
Tur (Pigeon Pea): Tur prices traded range bound with slight weakness during the weak under review. Dull demand and increased supply of imported tur mainly attributed to the price movement besides fears of stringent action from government. However, tight supply situation restricting any major fall in prices. Meanwhile, African crop scenario would remain the key in short to medium term as higher crop would lead to increase selling which would weigh on prices. Also early onset of monsoon as predicted by Skymet on May 28th would further lead to fall in prices. Thus, onset and progress of monsoon coupled with African crop situation would remain the key in coming days and should be watched very closely.
Urad (Black Gram): Urad prices continued its downward journey during the week in all the major centres on weak demand as well as higher arrivals of Burmese urad. The imports which were slow from Burma has gradually picked up pace in last 1 or 2 weeks and is further expected to increase in coming days which would keep prices in check. Also the exporters in Burma who are sitting on the stocks in anticipation of higher prices are now gradually started selling their stocks on good monsoon and crop prospect in India. Besides, arrivals of summer urad also aiding to the sentiment as it adds to the overall supply despite small in size. Thus, as per the above, we expect urad prices to remain under pressure. Meanwhile, monsoon will also remain important for prices moving ahead. Forecast of independent agencies suggests that Monsoon will hit the main land by this month end against forecast of arrival of monsoon on 5-7th June by IMD. Thus, progress of monsoon need to be watched very closely for further price direction.
Moong (Green Gram): Moong prices fell during the week under review on thin demand and increasing supplies. Summer crop arrivals have started from MP and Gujarat while new crop supplies are expected to start from UP in few days which is keeping prices under pressure besides reportedly good imports. Thus, prices are expected to remain weak moving ahead on increasing supply pressure as well as expectation of early arrival of monsoon, forecast by the weather agency “Skymet”.
Masur (Lentil): Prices fell by 3% during the week on weak demand as well as subdued sentiment for Tur. Sufficient Canadian supply also seen keeping the sentiment under check besides expectation of 30% increase in Canadian lentil acreage which would lead to higher supply. Meanwhile, US planting is near completion and preliminary crop estimates pointing towards higher lentil crop. Thus, increased global supply would keep prices under pressure. However, demand from the consuming countries need to be assessed as this may guide the prices.
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(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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