MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) – Kerala Agriculture University (Horticulture Division) in a research paper has projected price forecast of pepper for the period November, December 2015 and January 2016.
The research team after studying the market sentiments, the econometric analysis of monthly prices in Kochi market for ungarbled pepper (for a period of 20 years from 1995) and traders’ survey conducted as part of the “ICAR - Network project on market intelligence” found that the black pepper prices will remain firm in November and then slightly decrease in December 2015 and this followed by marginally decreasing trend is expected to continue in January 2016.
As per International Pepper Community Estimates, pepper’s global output in 2015 was at 3,74,500 tonnes and the carry forward stocks for 2016 is projected at 60,386 tonnes.
Area under pepper cultivation is around1.2 lakh hectares in India, a leading pepper producing country in the world.
As per the estimates of the Directorate of Arecanut and Spices development, Calicut, India produced 77,000 tonnes black pepper in 2014-15 and its production for 2015-16 has been projected at 50,000 tonnes, nearly 30 percent down from previous year.
Reduction is mainly attributed to the erratic weather conditions in Kerala and Karnataka.
Besides, domestic consumption of pepper is also expected to grow by 4-5 per cent annually. Hence, a major share of the production of black pepper in India is absorbed for meeting a huge domestic consumption demand.
A consistent rise in black pepper prices has been observed from second fortnight of August 2015, owing to strong demand against tight supply. The prices are still ruling firm as the growers, who could afford, are seen holding back their stocks in anticipation of higher prices in the coming months as lower output is projected next year.
Futures prices for the contracts in the coming months are also exhibiting an increasing pattern.
Low arrivals of black pepper at the terminal market in 2015 caused shortage of its supply in country, hence, India’s pepper imports are seen increasing. Out of the 8,500 tonnes imported by India from April to August 2015, the major share has been from Srilanka followed by Vietnam, primarily to meet the needs of high end value added product manufacturers and re-export.
Pepper prices rose in past three months and traders anticipated a marginal increase in its prices during the period up to November 2015. The study of the seasonality pattern in pepper prices has revealed that with the exception of past two-three years, in most of the years after 1995, the prices have a tendency to decline from December.
Since the production of black pepper and consequently the availability and exportable surplus in India is not rising at the same rate as its demand, the price is expected to remain at the present level with a slightly increasing trend until significant changes in production and market arrivals take place. Considering the overall production and market information, at the prevailing demand-supply situation, there is an expectation that prices will increase till November 2015.
The ranges of forecasted prices are as follows:
|
Months
|
Forecasted Price (Rs/Kg)
|
|
Nov-15
|
660-710
|
|
Dec-15
|
650-700
|
|
Jan-16
|
620-670
|
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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