MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - The initial intention received from the farmers of UP and MP the two largest producer of Masoor (Lentil), hints that the area this Rabi 2015-16 season is expected to decline due to dry/hot weather over UP and MP besides falling yields of the crop.
The key states has not received any rainfall for more than a month and very hot weather is prevailing over the states which has significantly lowered the soil moisture due to which farmers may not undertake the masoor sowing as the crop is very sensitive to hot & dry weather.
Besides, the yield of the masoor crop in India is reportedly declining year on year which also demotivating farmers to undertake masoor sowing. Moreover, the crop is sensitive to excess rains and cold condition (frost) due to which possibilities of losses become very high and farmers has to incur heavy losses. In the last season i.e. Rabi 2014-15 the crop has badly affected by frost in December / January, excess rains and hails in the month of February.
All the above factors are demotivating farmers to undertake the masoor planting this Rabi 2015-16 which would significantly lower the acreage and they may switch to Chana or Wheat cultivation as these crops tolerate the weather anomaly to a large extent.
In such a situation, the prices of the commodity is likely to remain stronger in the days to come as overall the supply would be affected due to expected decline in area this Rabi. However, the upcoming higher imports in the month of November would restrict any major upside in masoor prices to some extent and thereafter, prices are expected to remain strong.
The Uttar Pradesh agriculture department has set a target of 6.07 lakh hectares for masoor in the upcoming rabi season 2015-16, while production target set at 6.65 lakh metric tonnes.
Internationally, the overall Canadian masoor supply is down by 9-10% y-o-y due to below normal production and the stock to use ratio is only 12.2% against previous year’s 15.1%. Thus, the Canadian prices are also expected to remain strong. Aiding to this, exporters will also take advantage of the Indian situation and higher the prices moving ahead.
Thus, overall the masoor prices to remain strong in the medium to long term.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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