MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its July estimate for 2015-16 cotton crop, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has increased its forecast on world cotton consumption by 2 percent to 24.9 million tons compared to 24.3 million tons same month last year. China’s consumption is expected to remain stable at 7.7 million tons. Though China’s share of total world consumption may decline 31 percent, which is the sixth consecutive season of reduction since 2009/10 when it accounted for 40 percent of world consumption.
The committee says that international cotton prices may remain stable, though this will depend in part on changes in world cotton stocks. In 2014-15, world ending stocks are forecast up 9 percent to 21.9 million tons, reflecting a stock-to-use ratio of 90 percent.
World cotton area in 2015-16 is projected down 6 percent to 31.3 million hectares largely due to lower prices in 2014-15.
Assuming a world average yield of 764 kg/ha, production could reach 23.9 million tons, down 9 percent from 2014-15. China’s cotton area is forecast to decrease by 12 percent to 3.8 million hectares, and production down by 16 percent to 5.4 million tons in 2015-16. The Chinese government had announced that it has plans to start selling its stockpiles, estimated at around 11.3 million tons, at a price close to the current market price in the hopes of keeping the market stable.
The ICAC has cut its forecast on ending stock for 2016-15 to 20.9 million tons compared to 21.89 million tons last year.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)
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