JAIPUR (Commoditiescontrol) - Barley production in the country has declined but given that demand and supply is normal, as such the prices have maintained steady tone so far. Among other alternate cereals, Maize is available at the price of barley, which is the main factor for price stagnation. However, barley prices are expected to gain in July and August because demand from cattle feed producers is expected to rise. While, malt companies are purchasing barley for immediately need. Malt industries’ demand is not aggressive and exports are also not possible so the prices are moving in range bound.
According to third advance estimate of union ministry of agriculture, barley production may decline to 16.3 lakh tonnes compared to target of 17.5 lakh tonnes and last year’s output of 18.3 lakh tonnes. Country’s barley production was 16.60 lakh tonnes in 2011, 16.20 lakh tonnes in 2012 and 17.50 lakh tonnes in 2013.
Mr Prem Prakash Gupta of Shri Vishal Trading Company, Rewari (Haryana) said that currently malt industry buying barley regularly but demand and supply continues to be normal, so there is no positive trend in prices. But, prices may improve after one month. Barley production is estimated to reduce and arrival will decrease during rainy season. Barley (loose) was sold at Rs 1,230-1,240 per quintal.
According to Mr Gupta, prices may move in the narrow range of Rs 10-20 per quintal in next one month. Big stockists are not actively buying. This factor is also putting pressure on the sentiments. They have purchased barley according to their need and capability. So, the prices have lost Rs 20 per quintal in last one month. However, the prices are not expected to drop further due to lower production. Although, country’s largest beer manufacturing company has imported barley from Canada. The consignments are expected to reach here in September. Mr Gupta told that it suggests India will have to import to fulfill it’s total consumption. He expects that barley production will not be more than 13 lakh tonnes.
Mr Ghasiram Agrawal from Jaipur based firm Gajanand Devanand Bansal told that barley and maize are available at the same price, so only conventional feed manufactures are purchasing barley. Other feed manufactures are using maize. Barley prices are not expected to rise in the near future due to this fact. But, there is no possibility of price fall because the production declined. Barley may found support at present level. He said that barley exports are almost stopped. However, feed quality barley is supplied at Rs 1,300 per quintal (Mundra FOR) without tax. While, malt quality barley offered at Rs 1,400 per quintal (Kandla FOR).
Mr Satya Narayan Sharma from Chomu (Rajasthan) based firm Mahesh and Company told that barley production will decline this year. Normally, barley arrival reported to be 5,000 bags in each market of Chomu and Sri Madhopur, during the month of May every year arrival. But, currently, the arrivals have declined to near 1,500 bags. Anyone can assess the situation from poor arrival of the crop. According to Mr Sharma, feed manufactures will start buying in July and August. It will boost the prices. But barley will move in range bound till July. Barley was traded at Rs 1,650 per quintal plus transportation charges.
Mr Sanjay Yadav, director of Gurgoan based Imperial Malt Ltd does not agree with government’s production figure. He told that the government had projected of 16.3 lakh tonnes in third production estimate. But the crop damaged due to adverse weather this year, so the production will be less than 15 lakh tonnes.
Mr Yadav told that Indian malt companies were buying domestic barley because Canadian barley imports were very costly. Canadian barley is available at Rs 1,800 per quintal at Indian ports while domestic barley is available at Rs 1,325-1,350 per quintal (loose). He told that around 5-6 lakh tonnes barley is exported from India every year. But this year export is not possible because quality is very poor.
Mr Yadav said that malt industry’s demand is pegged at 6 lakh tonnes. But malt companies’ demand may not be fulfilled this year. Around 40 per cent barley is used for malt production in the country. Beer demand is increasing in China. So, India will have to increase beer production capacity till 2016-17. India is second largest malt producer after China in Asia-Pacific region.
Canada: Barley Crop
According to Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC), barley production was expected to reach at 79.40 lakh tonnes in current season 2015-16. The production was 71.19 lakh tonnes in last year 2014-15.
AAFC told that barley export may decline to 22 lakh tonnes in 2015-16. Last year, the exports were 22.50 lakh tonnes from Canada. It said that barley was priced $195-225 per tonne in April. It has since reduced to $190-220 per tonne in May.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-400155533)
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