NEW DELHI, Sep 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest September 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised downwards its forecast for global ending stocks in 2024-25 further at 76.49 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 77.61 million bales projected in August 2024.
In the global cotton balance sheet for 2024/25, production, consumption, trade, and beginning and ending stocks are projected lower.
World production is expected to fall by about 1.2 million bales as smaller crops in the United States, India, and Pakistan more than offset a larger crop in China.
World consumption is estimated lower by about 460,000 bales, largely due to a 200,000-bale decrease in Vietnam and 100,000-bale reductions in Bangladesh and Turkey.
World trade estimtes are slashed by about 550,000 bales as reduced imports by China, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh offset an increase in India.
World ending stocks are estimated to fall 1.1 million bales from August to about 76.5 million bales.
The forecast for the world price of cotton, represented by the “A” Index, is unchanged at 81.5 cents.
According to the USDA, "The 2023/24 global balance sheet is revised to reflect higher beginning stocks and mill use, and lower ending stocks. Production and trade are marginally reduced."
The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month. Beginning stocks and domestic use are unchanged.
The September NASS forecast of U.S. production is 14.5 million bales, down about 600,000
bales from August, largely due to reduced yields for upland cotton in the Southwest. The allcotton yield forecast of 807 pounds per acre is 33 pounds lower than last month.
With lower production for 2024/25, exports estimates are reduced 200,000 bales to 11.8 million bales, and ending stocks are projected to decrease 500,000 bales to 4.0 million bales, or 29 percent of projected use.
The 2024/25 season-average upland farm price is estimated unchanged at 66 cents per pound.
Revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 400,000-bale increase in beginning stocks and a similar reduction in unaccounted based on revised data and methodologies.
USDA- 2024-25 (Sep 2024) vs 2023-24 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 75.61/75.97
Production-116.42/113.57
Import- 42.99/43.73
Consumption-115.75/113.15
Export- 42.99/44.71
Ending Stock- 76.49/75.61
INDIA
Opening Stock-10.17/10.82
Production-24/25.80
Import-2.30/0.88
Consumption-25.50/25
Export-1.30/2.33
Ending Stock-9.67/10.17
US
Opening Stock-3.15/4.65
Production-14.51/12.07
Import 0.01/0.01
Consumption-1.90/1.85
Export-11.80/11.75
Ending Stock-4/3.15
CHINA
Opening Stock- 37.62/33.36
Production- 27.80/27.35
Import- 9.50/14.98
Consumption- 38/38
Ending Stock- 36.84/37.62
BRAZIL
Opening Stock- 3.17/4.01
Production- 16.70/14.57
Consumption- 3.30/3.10
Export- 12.50/12.31
Ending Stock- 4.08/3.17
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.85/1.53
Production-5.70/7
Import- 4/3.20
Consumption-9.60/9.70
Export-0.05/0.18
Ending Stock-1.90/1.85
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.59/1.73
Production-0.16/0.16
Import-7.70/7.30
Consumption-7.70/7.60
Ending Stock-1.74/1.59
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.03/1.05
Import-6.90/6.59
Consumption-6.90/6.60
Ending Stock-1.04/1.03
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.19/4.78
Production-5/5
Export-5.40/5.76
Ending Stock- 3.96/4.19
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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