India likely to receive normal monsoon rainfall: IMD

India likely to receive normal monsoon rainfall: IMD

Mumbai, 31 May (Commoditiescontrol) India is likely to receive normal rainfall again this year, as per the prediction made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.

According to IMD :

a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA)).

b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA)with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on data of 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

c) The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the four homogeneous region is most likely to be Above Normal for Central India (>106% of LPA) and South Peninsula (>106% of LPA). Rainfall is most likely to be Normal over Northeast India (96-106% of LPA) and Northwest India (92-108% of LPA).

d) The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA).

e) Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially (Fig.1) with most parts of the country expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall except some parts of eastcentral, east & northeast India and extreme southwest peninsular India, where it is likely to be below normal.

Prevailing La Niña conditions are likely to continue over equatorial Pacific Ocean and development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season is most likely.

Highlights of Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature for the Month of June 2022

a) Rainfall–Normal or above normal rainfall is most likely over many parts of northwest & central India, northern parts of South Peninsula and some parts of east India. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many parts of northeast India, some pockets of central & east India and southern parts of south peninsular India.

b) Temperature - Below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some parts of northwest India where above normal maximum temperatures are likely. Below normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except many parts of northwest and northeast India where above normal minimum temperatures are likely.

IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June 2022.