Mumbai (Commodities Control) - Mozambique, a country in the south of the African continent, is facing a biggest humanitarian crisis. The crisis is also expected to spread to the wider region. If the conflict continues it is likely to influence all the sectors of Mozambique’s economy and thereby, affect India as well. For India, the developments in Mozambique assume significance in the context of maritime security of the Western Indian Ocean, as well as domestic energy and food security.
The Mozambican Crisis
Since 2017, Mozambique has been facing the growing spectre of Islamic terrorism. In the last few years, terrorists have gained ground in several countries in Africa. So far estimates suggest that more than 2,000 people have been killed and 355,000 people have been forced to leave the terror-affected Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique. Reportedly, Mercenaries from South Africa and Russia have been spotted in Mozambique and recently American advisers have been sent to train Mozambican forces.
Impact on India’s Food Security
India imports pulses from Mozambique. In 2016, India signed an agreement for the production and marketing of tur (pigeon pea) to reduce the uncertainty of supply and instability in domestic prices of pulses. In 2018-19, India imported 2.52 million metric tonnes of pulses of which 228,000 tonnes were from Mozambique. Apart from Myanmar, Canada, Russia and Tanzania, Mozambique is a key partner in meeting India’s increasing demand for pulses. If the conflict in Mozambique continues, the country will have an impact on the exports of pulses to India.
Impact on India’s Energy Security
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Mozambique in July 2016, energy was a key factor for discussion. Energy in the form of gas has become the latest attraction for Indian and other foreign investors, where coal had dominated for the past decade.
In 2014, India’s State-owned ONGC Videsh and Oil India Limited acquired a 20 percent stake in a Rovuma gas block of Mozambique at a cost of $5 billion. BPCL holds a 10 percent stake in the consortium. Thus, in a consortium led by French energy giant Total, Indian companies hold 30 percent stake.
A number of Indian public and private sector companies (SAIL, NTPC, NMDC, Coal India, Tata Steel, etc.) are also engaged in the coal sector of Mozambique. Consequently, from the point of view of security of these large-scale investments and the role of Mozambican coal and gas in India’s energy security, instability in the country is a worrisome development. India would be warily watching the government’s response to the challenge posed by the terrorists.
Impact on India’s Maritime Security
Mozambique, through its location off the Mozambique Channel, links the Indian Ocean with continental Africa. The Mozambique Channel is part of the Indian Navy’s primary area of interest. The maritime region around Mozambique is crucial for the growing India-French defence partnership, and also India’s strategic outreach to the Southwest Indian Ocean states such as Madagascar, The Comoros, The Seychelles and Mauritius.
If the conflict continues, it is likely to influence all the sectors of Mozambique’s economy and thereby, affect India as well.
In this context, it would be necessary for India to consider its options in Mozambique. India through its non-permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council could nudge other key global players including the AU in evolving a co-ordinated response to the Mozambican crisis.
Bilaterally, it can also assist the Mozambican government by ramping up counter-insurgency training and intelligence co-operation. Ending the conflict in Mozambique and restoring stability in the region is in India’s best interests.
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