Mumbai (Commodities Control) – In its 2019-20 crop year outlook report for Pulses, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimates dry pea supply is slightly higher than the previous year at 4.6 million tonnes (Mt), while Canada’s exports are forecast to rise to 3.65 Mt, up from the 2018-19 level.
Steady exports to India and Bangladesh have been augmented by the record export pace to China. Canadian exports to the US YTD (August-March), however, have dipped due to the near record US dry pea crop. As a result of larger domestic supply and higher exports, carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to be marginally lower than the previous year at 0.3 Mt.
The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2018-19, due to higher yellow and green pea prices being offset by lower feed pea prices. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a crop year premium of $130/t over yellow dry peas, similar to 2018-19.
For 2020-21, producers intend to leave seeded area in Canada relatively unchanged at 1.73 million hectares (Mha), marginally lower than 2019-20. This would be the second largest Canadian dry pea area on record. Production is forecast to rise marginally to nearly 4.3 Mt due to average yields. Supply is forecast to be relatively unchanged at 4.6 Mt due to similar carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to be lower than 2019-20 at 3.4 Mt and carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is expected to be similar to slightly lower in 2019-20 due to increased domestic and world supply.
As for Canadian lentils, 2019-20 Canada’s lentil supply is nearly 2.9 Mt and exports are forecast to rise from 2018-19 to 2.2 Mt. The main markets continue to be Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and India. Due to higher exports, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply to 0.3 Mt. The average price of lentils in Canada is forecast to rise sharply from levels recorded for the previous year largely due to strong import demand, particularly from Turkey and India. Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a $95/t premium over red lentil prices for the entire crop year, compared to an $85/t premium to red lentils in 2018-19.
For 2020-21, Production is forecast to fall marginally to 2.15 Mt and supply is expected to decrease to 2.5 Mt, mostly due to smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower at 2 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to below 0.2 Mt. The average price is forecast to increase from 2019-20.
As for Canadian dry beans, 2019-20 exports are forecast to increase slightly due to the higher supply situation compared to the previous year. The US and the EU remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans. Tight North American carry-out stocks of canning quality dry beans is expected to continue to support US and Canadian dry bean prices for 2019-20. To-date (August-April), Canadian white pea bean prices have averaged over 15% higher, black beans are unchanged and pinto bean prices are 30% higher, than 2018-19 levels.
For 2020-21, the area seeded in Canada is forecast to fall by 18% from 2019-20 to 131,000 ha despite higher returns from the previous year. Production is expected to decrease to about 290,000 tonnes, but even with higher carry-in stocks, supply is expected to fall. Exports are forecast to fall marginally and stocks are expected to decrease. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall sharply due to expectations for an increase in North American supply.
For 2019-20, the chickpea supply is higher than the previous year. Canadian chickpea exports are expected to decrease sharply to 125,000 t, largely due to lower exports to Pakistan, one of Canada’s largest markets. Carry-out stocks are, thus, expected to rise significantly as compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to be unchanged from 2018-19, largely due to a large increase in North American and world supply.
For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to fall sharply from 2019-20 due to sharply lower returns from the previous year compared to other pulse crops. Production is forecast to fall to 170,000 t, assuming a return to average yields higher than the previous year. Supply is forecast to fall compared to 2019-20. Exports are forecast to be similar compared to the previous year. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease, but remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to be lower than 2019-20.
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