MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2020-21 pea production may rise marginally to 4.3 million tonnes (Mt), according to AAFC’s January outlook report.
For 2020-21, seeded area is forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2019-20 at 1.76 million hectares (Mha) because of good expected returns for yellow pea types when compared to other crops. Supply is expected to rise from 2019-20 due to higher carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to be only slightly lower than in 2019-20. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase. The average price is expected to be similar to 2019-20, due to similar dry pea prices and unchanged global supply.
For 2019-20, exports are expected to rise to 3.5 million tonnes (Mt) as higher exports to China and Bangladesh have been offset by lower exports to the US.
Canadian dry pea exports to India are forecast to be lower at 0.2 Mt.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise with the larger supply. The average price is expected to be marginally lower than 2018-19 levels, with higher green pea prices offset by lower yellow and feed pea prices.
During the month of January, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan was unchanged while the green pea price rose by $15/t. This was largely due to strong export demand and despite indications that the seeded area for the winter pulse crop in India is expected to be higher than the previous year.
Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a $120/t premium over yellow dry peas, compared to the $130/t premium that yellow peas had over green peas in 2018-19.
US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at over 1.0 Mt, up sharply from 2018-19. This was largely due to above average yields and higher area.
Canadian dry pea exports to the US are moving below last year’s pace, and are forecast to fall to 0.2 Mt in 2019-20.
Lentils
For 2019-20, exports are forecast to increase to 2.1 Mt due to increased import demand from Bangladesh, India and Turkey. With the marginally lower supply and an increase in exports, this is expected to lead to lower carry-out stocks, which will continue to support No.1 lentil prices throughout 2019-20.
During the month of January, the on-farm price of large green lentils in Saskatchewan was unchanged while red lentil prices rose by $50/t. Prices have been supported throughout the crop year by increased export demand and quality issues with the Canadian lentil crop.
Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of $130/t over No.1 red lentil prices, compared to an $85/t premium in 2018-19.
For 2019-20, US lentil production, mostly green types, is estimated at nearly 0.25 Mt, down sharply from 2018-19.
Canada is a minor exporter to the US. Canadian lentil exports to the US are expected to be lower than 2018-19, at 60 thousand tonnes (Kt).
For 2020-21, area seeded in Canada is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.53 Mha due to higher potential returns compared to other crops. Production is forecast to increase marginally to 2.2 Mt. Supply is expected to fall to 2.6 Mt because of lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to be lower than in 2019-20 at 2.0 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease. The overall lentil price is forecast to increase from 2019-20 due to the lower carry-out stocks and expectations for an average grade distribution.
Dry Beans
For 2019-20, exports are forecast to be marginally lower than 2018-19. The EU and the US remain the top two export markets. Carry-out stocks are also forecast to increase from 2018-19 due to the higher supply. The average Canadian dry bean price is expected to increase due to smaller supply in North America.
To-date, Canadian white pea bean prices are 5% higher, pinto beans are 15% higher and black beans are 10% lower than last year.
US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at over 0.9 Mt, down 17% from 2018-19.
US dry bean production decreased for all bean types with the exception of light red kidney bean types, which rose marginally. This, along with a favorable exchange rate is expected to continue to support Canadian dry bean prices throughout 2019-20.
For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to decrease due to lower potential returns compared to other crops, particularly soybeans. Production is forecast to rise to 0.33 Mt due to higher expected yields. Supply is expected to increase marginally, with higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be marginally higher than in 2019-20 and carry-out stocks are expected to increase.
The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to decrease due to expectations for larger North American supply.
Chickpeas
For 2019-20, exports are forecast to decrease from 2018-19, largely due to decreased demand from Pakistan and India. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise.
The average price is forecast to remain unchanged due to weaker world demand and higher world supply.
US chickpea production is estimated by USDA at 283 Kt, about half the output from 2018-19, due to a large reduction in area. Canadian chickpea exports to the US are forecast to be similar to last year at 23 Kt.
For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to decrease substantially from 2019-20, largely due to lower prices compared to other crops. As a result, production is expected to fall sharply to 200 Kt.
Supply is expected to fall only marginally from last year due to higher carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to rise from last year and carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to be lower than the previous year.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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