NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest February report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 121.33 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 120.48 million bales projected in January.
The 2019/20 world cotton forecasts include a 2.5-million-bale increase in ending stocks, driven by both larger production and lower consumption.
A 1-million-bale decline in China’s expected consumption is the largest single change this month. Consumption is lower despite the positive impact of the US-China trade agreement, due in part to the negative economic effects of the novel coronavirus outbreak.
Consumption is also projected lower in Vietnam but higher in Pakistan and Turkey.
Production in Brazil in 2018/19 is revised upward by 480,000 bales reflecting higher production in Mato Grosso. Pakistan, Brazil, and Tanzania production in 2019/20 is revised upward. Total production changes this month come to a 1.3-million-bale global increase, while total consumption changes net to a 1.2-million-bale reduction.
The US cotton estimates for 2019/20 are unchanged, except for a 1 cent-perpound reduction in the season-average upland farm price, to 62 cents, 8.3 cents lower than in 2018/19.
USDA-2019-20 (February) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-79.99/80.84
Production-121.33/118.60
Import-43.55/42.20
Consumption-119.01/120.19
Export-43.54/41.35
Ending Stock-82.12/79.99
INDIA
Opening Stock-9.31/9.23
Production-29.50/25.80
Import-2.30/1.80
Consumption-24.50/24
Export-3.60/3.51
Ending Stock-13.01/9.31
US
Opening Stock-4.85/4.20
Production-20.10/18.37
Import-0.01/----
Consumption-3/2.98
Export-16.50/14.76
Ending Stock-5.40/4.85
CHINA
Opening Stock-35.67/37.99
Production-27.25/27.75
Import-8.50/9.64
Consumption-37.50/39.50
Ending Stock-33.75/35.67
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-12.26/8.66
Production-12.70/13
Consumption-3.40/3.40
Export-8.90/6.02
Ending Stock-12.68/12.26
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.50/2.83
Production-6.60/7.60
Import-4.20/2.85
Consumption-10.80/10.70
Export-0.10/0.06
Ending Stock-2.37/2.50
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.58/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.20/6.90
Consumption-7.30/7.30
Ending Stock-1.61/1.58
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.29
Import-6.80/6.90
Consumption-6.80/7
Ending Stock-1.19/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-1.57/3.04
Production-0.68/2.20
Export-1.30/3.63
Ending Stock-0.91/1.57
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