MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2020-21 pea production may rise marginally to 4.3 million tonnes (Mt), with an expectation of trend yields, according to AAFC’s December outlook report.
For 2020-21, seeded area is forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2019-20 at 1.75 million hectares (Mha), because of good returns relative to other crops. Dry peas continue to be recognised as a beneficial part of a crop rotation plan.
Supply is forecast to rise marginally to 4.8 Mt due to similar carry-in stocks. With the tariff in India expected to remain, exports to other countries are expected to be marginally lower than 2019-20 and carry-out stocks are expected to rise.
The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2019-20, due to similar pea prices and ample world supply.
For 2019-20, Canadian dry pea exports for the August to November period were 1.4 Mt, higher than for the same period last year. China imported the largest portion to-date at 1.0 Mt. The leading export market, after China, is Bangladesh and India. Total Canadian dry pea exports for the crop year are forecast to rise to 3.4 Mt due to higher export demand from China.
Canadian dry pea supply is estimated to rise by 8% as higher production is partly offset by lower carry-in stocks. With the higher supply, carry-out stocks are expected to rise but continue to be supportive for prices throughout 2019-20.
The average price is expected to be slightly lower than 2018-19, mostly due to lower prices for yellow and feed peas with similar prices for green peas. Green pea prices are expected to maintain a premium of $110/t over yellow peas for the crop year, compared to the $130/t premium green peas had to yellow peas last year.
US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at 1.0 Mt, up sharply from 2018-19. This was largely due to higher seeded area and higher yields. As a result, Canadian dry pea exports to the US are forecast to fall to 0.2 Mt in 2019-20.
Lentils
For 2019-20, Canadian lentil exports for the August to November period totalled 0.7 Mt, 15% more than the amount exported during the same period in 2018. India imported the largest portion to-date at just under 0.2 Mt.
The leading export market, after India, is Turkey, followed by Bangladesh and Unite Arab Emirates. Total Canadian lentil exports for 2019-20 are forecast to rise to 2.1 Mt, despite lentil import duties imposed by India.
The supply of lentils in Canada is estimated to be marginally lower than last year as lower carry-in stocks was partly offset by the higher production. With the marginally lower supply and an increase in exports, this is expected to lead to sharply lower carry-out stocks for the end of the 2019-20 crop year.
The overall average price range is forecast to rise marginally from last year to $400 to 430/t. Stronger prices for all lentil types have been offset by a below average grade distribution. As a result, there have been higher discounts for the lower grades for all green lentil types. Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of $130/t above the price of No.1 red lentils over the crop year, compared to a $85/t premium in 2018-19.
US lentil production, mostly green types, is estimated at 244 kt, down 36% from the previous year. As a result, Canadian lentil exports to the US are forecast at 60 Kt for 2019-20.
For 2020-21, area seeded in Canada is expected to be unchanged at 1.53 Mha, due to strong prices for the No.1 grades the previous year. Production is forecast to rise marginally to 2.2 Mt. With lower carry-in stocks, supply is expected to fall to 2.7 Mt, the lowest since 2012-13.
Exports are forecast to fall from 2019-20 to 2.0 Mt with a lower exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall.
With the assumption of an average grade distribution and grade discounts, the overall lentil price is forecast to rise from 2019-20.
Dry Beans
For 2019-20, exports are forecast to be marginally lower than last year. The EU and the US are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico.
With the higher supply, carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply from the previous year.
The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise, due to lower production and quality issues in North America.
US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at 0.94 Mt, down 17% from 2018-19. US dry bean production was largely down for most bean types with the exception of light red kidney type production, which increased marginally.
This and a similar exchange rate from the previous year is expected to continue to support Canadian dry bean prices for 2019-20.
For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to be lower than 2019-20, but remain historically high, because of favorable potential returns compared to other crops, particularly soybeans and corn. Production is expected to increase to 0.33 Mt due to lower expected abandonment and higher expected yields.
Supply is expected to rise to a record 0.5 Mt due to the higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be marginally higher than 2019-20. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall sharply due to an expected increase in North American supply.
Chickpeas
For 2019-20, exports are forecast to be lower than 2018-19 due to reduced demand from Pakistan. The US and Pakistan have been the main markets for Canadian chickpeas to-date.
Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to record levels.
The average price is forecast to fall, due to lower world demand and higher carry-out stocks.
US chickpea production is estimated by USDA to fall below 0.3 Mt, down over 50% from 2018-19, largely due to lower area.
For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to fall from 2019-20 because of expectations for lower returns relative to other pulse crops. As a result, production is expected to decrease sharply to 200 kt.
Supply is expected to decrease only marginally from last year as the lower production is partly offset by large carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be higher than the previous year and carry-out stocks are expected to fall but remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to be higher than 2019-20 due to expectations for a decrease in world supply and therefore an increase in world demand.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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