NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest January report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 120.48 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 121.11 million bales projected in December.
The global 2019/20 cotton forecasts also include lower trade, and ending stocks.
Production is forecast 630,000 bales lower, and changes for 2019/20 this month, other than the United States, include decreases for Turkey, Australia, Mali, and Pakistan.
World consumption is virtually unchanged as an increase in Uzbekistan’s expected use is offset by declines for Bangladesh and Vietnam.
World trade in 2019/20 is projected 550,000 bales lower, largely due to a 500,000-bale drop in China’s expected imports. Smaller declines for Bangladesh and Vietnam are offset by increases for Turkey and Pakistan. Exports are 200,000 bales lower for India and Uzbekistan, and also lower for Australia and Mali.
Global 2019/20 ending stocks are 730,000 bales lower this month. At 79.6 million bales, total ending stocks are projected about unchanged from 2018/19, but stocks outside of China are expected 3.0 million bales above the year before.
This month’s outlook for US cotton in 2019/20 includes lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged.
Production is lowered 100,000 bales, mainly due to a decline in Texas which was partially offset in other States. Ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower this month at 5.4 million bales. Upland cotton season-average price received by farmers is projected 2 cents higher than a month ago at 63 cents per pound, based on stronger-than-expected early season prices.
USDA-2019-20 (January) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-79.53/80.84
Production-120.48/118.14
Import-43.83/42.20
Consumption-120.22/120.19
Export-43.85/41.34
Ending Stock-79.59/79.53
INDIA
Opening Stock-9.31/9.23
Production-29.50/25.80
Import-2.20/1.80
Consumption-24.50/24
Export-3.80/3.51
Ending Stock-12.71/9.31
US
Opening Stock-4.85/4.20
Production-20.10/18.37
Import-0.01/----
Consumption-3/2.98
Export-16.50/14.76
Ending Stock-5.40/4.85
CHINA
Opening Stock-35.67/37.99
Production-27.25/27.75
Import-8.50/9.64
Consumption-38.50/39.50
Ending Stock-32.75/35.67
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-11.78/8.66
Production-12.50/12.52
Consumption-3.40/3.40
Export-8.80/6.02
Ending Stock-12.10/11.78
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.50/2.83
Production-6.10/7.60
Import-4.30/2.85
Consumption-10.60/10.70
Export-0.10/0.06
Ending Stock-2.17/2.50
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.58/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.20/7.20
Consumption-7.30/7.40
Ending Stock-1.61/1.78
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.29
Import-7.10/6.90
Consumption-7.10/7
Ending Stock-1.19/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-1.57/3.04
Production-0.68/2.20
Export-1.35/3.63
Ending Stock-0.86/1.57
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