NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 121.11 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 121.94 million bales projected in November.
The global 2019/20 cotton forecasts also include lower beginning stocks, largely offset by lower consumption.
A nearly 900,000-bale decline this month in beginning stocks is led by a 700,000-bale reduction in India, following a report by India’s Cotton Advisory Board that lowered India’s 2018/19 cotton crop by a similar amount.
World cotton production in 2019/20 is projected at 121.1 million bales, down 830,000 from November, and 3.0 million higher than in 2018/19. Production changes for 2019/20 this month other than the United States include decreases of 800,000 bales for Pakistan, 500,000 for India, and smaller declines for Australia, Turkey, and Chad. Partly offsetting
are a 900,000-bale increase in Brazil’s projected crop, a 500,000-bale increase for Uzbekistan, and several smaller gains.
A 1.2-million-bale decline this month in projected world consumption is led by a 1.0-million-bale reduction for China, due in part to lower textile exports. The consumption forecasts for Vietnam and Pakistan were also reduced, offsetting a small increase for Uzbekistan.
Global 2019/20 ending stocks are nearly 500,000 bales lower this month. At 80.3 million bales, total ending stocks are only projected about 600,000 bales higher than in 2018/19, but stocks outside of China are expected to rise 3.1 million bales from the year before.
This month’s outlook for US cotton in 2019/20 includes lower production and ending stocks compared with last month.
Production is lowered 611,000 bales mainly due to a 500,000-bale decline in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales lower this month, at 5.5 million. Upland cotton’s season-average farm price is also unchanged at 61 cents per pound.
USDA-2019-20 (December) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-79.69/80.84
Production-121.11/118.10
Import-44.38/41.42.50
Consumption-120.27/120.29
Export-44.40/41.34
Ending Stock-80.32/79.69
INDIA
Opening Stock-9.31/9.23
Production-29.50/25.80
Import-2.20/1.80
Consumption-24.50/24
Export-4/3.51
Ending Stock-12.51/9.31
US
Opening Stock-4.85/4.20
Production-20.21/18.37
Import-0.01/----
Consumption-3/2.98
Export-16.50/14.76
Ending Stock-5.50/4.85
CHINA
Opening Stock-35.67/37.99
Production-27.25/27.75
Import-9/9.64
Consumption-38.50/39.50
Ending Stock-33.25/35.67
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-11.78/8.66
Production-12.50/12.52
Consumption-3.40/3.40
Export-8.80/6.02
Ending Stock-12.10/11.78
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.50/2.83
Production-6.20/7.60
Import-4.20/2.85
Consumption-10.60/10.70
Export-0.10/0.06
Ending Stock-2.17/2.50
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.78/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.30/7.20
Consumption-7.40/7.40
Ending Stock-1.81/1.78
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.29
Import-7.20/6.90
Consumption-7.20/7
Ending Stock-1.19/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-1.57/3.04
Production-0.85/2.20
Export-1.50/3.63
Ending Stock-0.89/1.57
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