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Weekly ICE cotton: Ends up on strong export sales, US-China trade deal optimism

21 Oct 2019 7:54 am
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MUMBAI (Commoditiesontrol) – Cotton prices on the Intercontinental Exchange ended firm on strong export sales data in addition to short-covering ahead of a likely trade deal between the US and China.

The most active December cotton contract ended up 2.0% at 65.16 cents per lb. Volumes in the December contract dropped to 16,479 compared with 39,033 a week ago. The March 2020 contract ended up 2.1% to 65.81 cents per lb.

Early during the week, traders covered their short positions on views cotton was overly sold. With renewed hopes of a trade deal between the US and China, traders have been consolidating their positions.

On Tuesday, the US Department of Agriculture released its weekly crop report which showed harvesting in the 15-cotton growing states as on October 15 was at 32% compared with 25% a week ago and 31% a year ago.

The “good” rating of the crop stood at 30% compared with 32% a week ago. The “excellent” rating of the crop was at 8% from 7% the previous week, while the “fair” rating was at 41% from 42% a week ago.

The dollar’s weakness also helped cotton gain as commodities priced in the greenback gets cheaper to import. The dollar index slipped over 1% to 97.008 during the week amid expectations of a slowing economy and as the pound sterling gained after a Brexit deal was struck between the UK and the European Union earlier during the week.

By Friday, strong weekly export sales coupled with optimism over a likely US-Sino trade deal pushed up prices further.

The US Department of Agriculture released the export sales data for the week ended October 10, which showed net sales for 2019-20 were up 9% on week at 206,500 RB and up 36% from the prior 4-week average. Exports were at 151,600 RB, up 2% from the previous week. Net sales of the Pima cotton were at 4,600 RB, down 52% from the previous week. Exports of 6,000 RB were down 42% on week and 28% from the prior 4-week average.

Friday, US President Donald Trump said he expected to sign the trade deal with the Chinese President’s Xi Jinping by mid-November.

“I think it will get signed quite easily, hopefully by the summit in Chile, where President Xi and I will both be,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

Data released by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission data for the week to October 15 showed managed money traders reduced their net short positions by 7,928 narrowing total net short positions to 11,377. Open interest for the week stood at 310,955, up 2,300 on week.

This week prices are likely to remain elevated in the run-up to the US-China trade deal. The impact of the weekend storm forecasted in Texas is also likely to keep prices firm. The first resistance for the December contract is seen at 65.37 cents, while the second resistance is seen at around 65.57 cents.

(Commoditiescontrol Bureau)



       
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