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USDA Revises Down 2019-20 Global Cotton Production Estimate To 124.77 Million Bales

10 Oct 2019 9:42 pm
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NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest October report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 124.77 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 124.90 million bales projected in September.

World production is 130,000 bales lower as declines for Brazil, Pakistan, Australia, and the United States more than offset a 1-million-bale increase in India.

Global consumption is 130,000 bales lower than September’s forecast and the projection for world trade in 2019/20 is reduced 300,000 bales. Lower expected imports for China and Vietnam more than offset increases for Pakistan and Turkey.

Exports for Australia and Brazil are also lower. World ending stocks in 2019/20 are now forecast at 83.7 million bales, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but 3.0 million bales higher than in 2018/19.

The 2019/20 US cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower production and ending stocks compared with last month.

Production is lowered less than 1 percent, to 21.7 million bales, largely the result of a reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, and ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales.

At 7.0 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2019/20 are projected at 36 percent of use, compared with 27 percent in 2018/19. The 2019/20 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 58 cents per pound, unchanged from last month and 12.5 cents lower than in 2018/19.


USDA-2019-20 (October) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

WORLD
Opening Stock-80.73/80.93
Production-124.77/119.01
Import-42.90/41.42.36
Consumption-121.61/120.23
Export-42.91/41.23
Ending Stock-83.69/80.73

INDIA
Opening Stock-10.03/9.23
Production-30.50/26.50
Import-1.60/1.80
Consumption-24.75/24
Export-4/3.50
Ending Stock-13.38/10.03

US
Opening Stock-4.85/4.20
Production-21.71/18.37
Import-0.01/----
Consumption-3/2.98
Export-16.50/14.76
Ending Stock-7/4.85

CHINA
Opening Stock-35.67/37.99
Production-27.75/27.75
Import-9.50/9.64
Consumption-39.50/39.50
Ending Stock-33.25/35.67

BRAZIL
Opening Stock-12.01/8.66
Production-11.60/12.75
Consumption-3.40/3.40
Export-8.30/6.01
Ending Stock-11.94/12.01

PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.50/2.83
Production-7.60/7.60
Import-3.10/2.85
Consumption-10.70/10.70
Export-0.05/0.06
Ending Stock-2.42/2.50

BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.78/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.30/7.20
Consumption-7.40/7.40
Ending Stock-1.81/1.78

VIETNAM

Opening Stock-1.19/1.29
Import-7.50/6.90
Consumption-7.40/7
Ending Stock-1.29/1.19

AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-1.57/3.04
Production-1.20/2.20
Export-1.70/3.63
Ending Stock-1.04/1.57


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