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Weekly ICE Sugar: Ends Firm On Global Deficit Expectations, Brazilian Realís Rise

7 Oct 2019 7:16 am
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MUMBAI – Sugar prices on the Intercontinental Exchange ended up last week as traders covered their short positions noting the smaller deliveries against the October contract and as expectations of a global sugar deficit in 2019-20 strengthened. The Brazilian real’s rise against the US dollar in the latter part of the week also pushed up prices.

The most tracked, Sugar no 11 or the March 2020 contract ended up 1.1% during the week at 12.76 cents, while the London December white sugar ended up 1.2% at $345.50 a tonne. The raw sugar contract touched a seven-week high of 12.93, while the white sugar contract hit an over seven-month high of $347.90 per tonne. Volumes in the sugar no 11 stood at 40,783 compared with 68,534 a week ago. Volumes in Sugar no 5 stood were at 9,500 compared with 7,845 a week ago.

Prices began on a firm note during the week as traders covered their short positions noting the smaller-than-expected deliveries against the October contract.

According to ICE, the October contract fetched deliveries worth 170,000 tonnes, the smallest delivery for an October expiration in eight years, also an indication of tighter supplies. News reports cited Wilmar International as the sole buyer of the contract. The previous contract got deliveries worth 2 million tonnes.

Prices were also bullish as JP Morgan raised its 2019-20 global sugar deficit to 6.4 million tonnes, sharply up from 3.0 million tonnes projected in June. It also said that the 2020-21 sugar deficit will be a minimum of 7 million tonnes.

On Wednesday, Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised their 2019-20 global sugar deficit estimate to 5.3 million tonnes from 3.8 million tonnes estimated in August.

By the middle of the week, the easing crude oil prices offered some resistance at higher levels. The November WTI crude oil contract fell nearly 6% during the week to end at $52.81 a barrel amid concerns over a slowdown.

However, by Friday prices had regained their upward momentum noting the Brazilian real’s rise against the US dollar. The Brazilian real gained 2.5% in the last five days to end at an over two-week low of 4.05.

The latest CFTC data showed that managed money traders’ net short positions narrowed to 176,149 as on the week ended October 1, reducing 37,707 net short positions on week. Open interest for the week stood at 1,036,927, down 82,798 on week.

This week, prices are likely to remain firm as the global sugar deficit concerns continue to linger on. A continued appreciation in the real could add to the rising sugar prices. There could be some resistance for the March contract around 12.83-12.90 cent levels.

(Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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