MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2019-20 pea production may rise to 4.7 million tonnes (Mt), up 30 percent from 3.58 million tonnes in 2018-19 due to higher area and similar yields, according to AAFC’s August outlook report.
For 2018-19, exports were higher than the 2017-18 level at 3.25 Mt due to record shipments to Bangladesh. This was partly offset by lower exports to China and the US.
Domestic use was lower compared to the previous year. The average dry pea price was USD 270/tonne due to higher exports which led to decline in carry-out stocks in 2018-19. The average crop year prices for yellow peas was lower than for the previous year but prices were higher than 2017-18 for green types and feed peas.
For 2019-20, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is estimated by STC to rise by 30 percent from 2018-19, to 4.7 Mt, the second highest on record, due to a rise in harvested area and above average yields. Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to account for 51 percent and 44 percent of the dry pea production, respectively, 3 percent in Manitoba and the remainder in British Columbia and Eastern Canada.
However, total supply is forecast to rise by only 18 percent due to the lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to 3.4 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top markets.
Carry-out stocks are also forecast to rise. The average price is expected to be slightly lower than 2018-19 due to larger world supply and increased carry-out stocks in Canada.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 26 percent from 2018-19, to 1.1 million acres. This is largely due to an expected rise in area in Montana. With lower abandonment and higher yields, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise sharply to over 1.0 Mt. The major US export markets for dry peas, mostly green pea types, were Canada, Philippines and India.
Lentils
For 2018-19, lentil exports rose to over 2.0 Mt, up 32 percent from the previous year. Of this, 1.3 Mt were red lentil types with 0.7 consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was lower than the previous year at 0.3 Mt. Carry-out stocks decreased to below 0.7 Mt.
The average Canadian lentil price was significantly lower than 2017-18, despite increased demand.
No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a record crop year premium of $80/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2019-20, lentil production is estimated to rise by 20 percent to 2.5 Mt due to higher yields. Seeded area was relatively unchanged, but above average yields are expected, with the majority of the increase in red lentil types. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 91 percent of the lentil production and 9 percent in Alberta.
Despite the rise in production, total supply is forecast to rise slightly due to lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be lower at 1.9 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise marginally to 0.7 Mt. The average price for all grades is forecast to be similar to 2018-19 despite higher carry-out stocks and expectations for an increased world supply.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at below 0.5 million acres, down 38 percent from 2018-19 due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. Despite higher yields and lower abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by USDA at below 0.3 Mt, down sharply from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, India and the EU, particularly Spain.
Dry Beans
For 2018-19, dry bean exports were slightly lower than 2017-18. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Japan and Mexico. A favorable exchange rate provided the majority of the support for Canadian dry bean prices in 2018-19.
For 2019-20, Canadian production is forecast to rise to 0.36 Mt, due to an increase in seeded area, mostly in Manitoba. By province, Manitoba is expected to account for 43 percent of the dry bean production, Ontario 33 percent, Alberta 20 percent, with the remainder in Quebec and the Maritimes. Total supply is expected to increase, due to higher production and carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be relatively unchanged. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to increase. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall due to higher expected supply in North America.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to increase by 9 percent to over 1.3 million acres, largely due to higher area seeded in Minnesota and Michigan. Total US dry bean production for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at 1.1 Mt, marginally lower than from 2018-19. The increase in black bean types is expected to be offset by a decline in white pea bean types.
Chickpeas
For 2018-19, Canadian chickpea exports rose from the previous year to nearly 147 thousand tonnes (Kt).
Record exports to Pakistan were behind the rise in exports. As a result of the larger supply, and despite an increase in exports, carry-out stocks rose sharply from the previous year. The average price decreased sharply, due to a large increase in world supply for all chickpea types.
For 2019-20, production is forecast to fall sharply to 263 Kt, due to decreased area and yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 87 percent of the chickpea production with 13 percent in Alberta.
Total supply is forecast to rise due to burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher than 2018-19 and carry-out stocks are expected to rise marginally.
The average price is forecast to fall due to expectations for large world chickpea supply.
US chickpea area for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to fall sharply to 0.45 million acres. Despite higher yields and lower abandonment, 2019-20 US chickpea production is forecast by USDA at 0.33 Mt, down significantly from the previous year. The main export markets are India, the EU and Canada.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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