Login ID:
Password:
Partner Login
Contact Us : 7066511911

USDA Revises Down 2019-20 Global Cotton Production Estimate To 124.90 Million Bales

12 Sep 2019 9:35 pm
 Comments 0 Comments  |  Comments Post Comment  |  Font Size A A A 

NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest September report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 124.90 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 125.61 million bales projected in August.

The 2019/20 world estimates this month show higher beginning stocks, but lower production, consumption, and world trade. Production is forecast 709,000 bales lower as reductions for the United States and Australia offset an increase for India.

Consumption is forecast 1.3 million bales lower than in August, with lower estimates for China, India, Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States offsetting an increase for Turkey. World trade is lower as lower imports are forecast for China, Vietnam, and Thailand.

World ending stocks for 2019/20 are forecast 1.3 million bales higher this month, at 83.7 million bales, 2.9 million bales above the revised 2018/19 estimate.

The 2019/20 US cotton estimates include lower beginning stocks, production, exports, and consumption, while ending stocks are unchanged.

Beginning stocks are reduced 400,000 bales this month, reflecting 2018/19 reported ending stocks data from the Farm Service Agency and the NASS Cotton System Consumption and Stocks report.

Production is lowered 654,000 bales to 21.9 million, largely due to a decline for the Southwest, while consumption is lowered 100,000 bales reflecting recent activity.

Exports are projected 700,000 bales lower due to reduced U.S. production and a lower projected US share of world trade.

The 2019/20 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 58 cents per pound, down 2 cents from last month.

In both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 U.S. cotton balance sheets, the estimate for unaccounted cotton is revised downwards and exports are revised upwards. The unaccounted element of the US cotton balance sheet has been growing in recent years, indicating an imbalance in the sum of the other components.

The estimates for production, consumption, and stocks have maintained their consistency over this time, but a growing difference has occurred between the sources available for estimating US exports.

For 2017/18, exports are raised 432,000 bales, and unaccounted is reduced 332,000 bales. For 2018/19, exports are raised 546,000 bales, and unaccounted is 546,000 bales lower than the result based on the methodology used in past years. In each marketing year, revised exports are estimated as the average of the export levels reported by the Bureau of the Census and USDA’s Export Sales Reporting System.

USDA-2019-20 (September) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

WORLD


Opening Stock-80.80/80.96
Production-124.90/119.05
Import-43.28/41.42.50
Consumption-121.74/120.44
Export-43.34/41.15
Ending Stock-83.75/80.80

INDIA

Opening Stock-10.03/9.23
Production-29.50/26.50
Import-1.60/1.80
Consumption-24.75/24
Export-4/3.50
Ending Stock-12.38/10.03

US

Opening Stock-4.85/4.20
Production-21.86/18.37
Import-0.01/----
Consumption-3/2.98
Export-16.50/14.76
Ending Stock-7.20/4.85

CHINA

Opening Stock-35.67/37.99
Production-27.75/27.75
Import-10/9.64
Consumption-39.50/39.50
Ending Stock-33.80/35.67

BRAZIL

Opening Stock-12.06/8.66
Production-12/12.80
Consumption-3.40/3.40
Export-8.50/6.01
Ending Stock-12.19/12.06

PAKISTAN

Opening Stock-2.50/2.83
Production-8/7.60
Import-2.90/2.85
Consumption-10.70/10.70
Export-0.08/0.06
Ending Stock-2.60/2.50

BANGLADESH

Opening Stock-1.78/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.30/7.20
Consumption-7.40/7.40
Ending Stock-1.81/1.78

VIETNAM

Opening Stock-1.19/1.29
Import-7.60/7
Consumption-7.50/7.10
Ending Stock-1.29/1.19

AUSTRALIA

Opening Stock-1.57/3.04
Production-1.40/2.20
Export-1.90/3.63
Ending Stock-1.04/1.57


       
  Rate this story 1 out of 52 out of 53 out of 54 out of 55 out of 5 Rated
0.0

   Post comment
Comment :

Note : This forum is moderated. We reserve the right to not publish and/or edit the comment on the site, if the comment is offensive, contains inappropriate data or violates our editorial policy.
Name :  
Email :  
   

Top | Post Comment  

Latest Special Reports
Weekly ICE Sugar: Ends Down On Brazilian Real’s Persist...
Weekly ICE Sugar: Ends Firm On Global Deficit Expectat...
Weekly: ICE Sugar Ends Up On Lower Output Views From Br...
Weekly ICE Sugar: Ends Up On Crude Oil Price Rise, Defi...
Weekly ICE Sugar: Ends Mixed On Near-Term Supply Views,...
more
Top 5 News
USD/ARS & USD/BRL—
USD/CNY & USD/IDR
USD/MYR
USD/INR – Consolidating Between Support (Rs. 70.60) & R...
Weekly ICE Cotton: Ends Up As US, China Strike “Phase 1...
Top 5 Market Commentary
Domestic Urad Trades Mixed At Major Markets; Imported V...
Raw/Processed Chana Gains At Spot Markets
India's Groundnut Production May Increase By 36.5% In 2...
Domestic Tur Gains At Selective Markets; Tur Dal Firm
Downtrend Continues In Domestic Sugar Prices
Copyright © CC Commodity Info Services LLP. All rights reserved.