MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2019-20 pea production may rise to 4.3 million tonnes (Mt), up 20 percent from 3.58 million tonnes in 2018-19 due to higher area and similar yields, according to AAFC’s May outlook report.
For 2019-20, dry pea seeded area in Canada increased to a record 1.75 million hectares (Mha), up 20% from 2018-19 due to good returns relative to other crops and continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan.
Saskatchewan accounts for 54% of the dry pea area, Alberta for 42%, with the remainder seeded in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada.
However, supply is forecast to rise by only 5% to 4.5 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks combined with an increase in production.
Exports are forecast to be lower at 3.1 Mt, with China, Bangladesh and the US continuing to be Canada’s top markets.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise and be above the five and ten year averages.
The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2018-19, due primarily to expectations for an unchanged world supply.In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to rise from 2018-19 to over 1.0 million acres.
This is largely due to an expected rise in area in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to rise by 14% to over 0.8 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to common Canadian export markets in Yemen and the Philippines and it is expected the US will continue to expand its market share in 2019-20.
For 2018-19, Canada’s exports are expected to be marginally higher than the 2017-18 level at 3.2 million tonnes.
This has been largely due to increased demand from Bangladesh and continued strong demand from China. However, this has been partly offset by reduced exports to the US and India.
Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to fall significantly due to the increased export pace and higher domestic use. The average dry pea price is expected to rise marginally from 2017-18.
Lower yellow pea prices have been more than offset by higher green and feed pea prices.
The prices of green dry peas are expected to maintain a $135/t crop year premium to yellow dry peas compared to a $40/t premium in 2017-18. During the month of June, Saskatchewan yellow and green pea farmgate prices were unchanged.
This was largely due to the dry conditions across the Prairies that have supported dry pea prices.
Lentils
For 2018-19, lentil exports are forecast to rise sharply to 1.9 Mt. Of this total, 1.2 Mt are red lentil types with the remaining 0.7 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The main markets are India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use is forecast to be lower at 0.4 Mt.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to below 0.7 Mt. The average price for all types and grades is forecast to be sharply lower than the previous year for all lentil types.
Large green lentil prices are expected to maintain a small premium ($70/t) over red lentil prices. During the month of June, Saskatchewan large green lentil farm gate prices rose $25/t and red lentil farm gate prices have risen $5/t. This is largely due to below average lentil crop development conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta.
For 2019-20, Canadian lentil seeded area was largely unchanged at over 1.5 Mha, due to good forecasted returns compared to other crops. By province, Saskatchewan accounts for 90% of the lentil area, with the remainder seeded in Alberta, Manitoba and British Columbia. Production is forecast to increase to 2.2 Mt, with supply slightly lower due to lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be lower at 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 0.5 Mt. The average price for all grades and types is forecast to rise from 2018-19 with higher prices from green types. There is an expectation that impot demand in the Indian subcontinent will continue to be similar to higher in 2019-20.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at 0.54 million acres, down 31% from 2018-19 due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US lentil production is forecast by AAFC at 280 thousand tonnes (Kt), down sharply from the previous year.
The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, the EU, India and Mexico.
Chickpeas
For 2018-19, Canadian chickpea exports are expected to rise sharply to 145 Kt. This is due to increased import demand from Pakistan. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply. The average price has been pressured by an increase in world chickpea supply.
For 2019-20, the area seeded fell by 13% from 2018-19 due to the lower farmgate prices received in the previous year. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 86% of the chickpea area, with the remainder in Alberta. Production is forecast by AAFC at 260 Kt, due to lower seeded area and expected yields. Supply, however, is forecast to rise from 2018-19.
Exports are forecast to fall and carry-out stocks are forecast to continue to rise. The average price is forecast to fall marginally, due to a larger world supply, with the expectation of an average grade distribution.
US chickpea area for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to fall to 0.56 million acres, down 35% from 2018-19. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in Idaho, North Dakota and Washington.
Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US chickpea production is forecast by AAFC at 355 Kt, a 39% decrease from the previous year. The US is expected to continue to export to the EU, Canada and Pakistan.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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