NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest July report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 125.79 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 125.32 million bales projected in June.
Changes to this month’s 2019/20 world cotton supply and demand estimates are primarily driven by higher beginning stocks (up 1.7 million bales) and lower consumption (down 1.0 million bales), resulting in higher ending stocks (up 3.2 million bales).
Higher beginning stocks stem largely from reduced 2018/19 consumption estimates for Bangladesh and China.
Similarly, 2019/20 world consumption is projected lower as reductions for Bangladesh and China more than offset mill-use gains for India, Turkmenistan, and Vietnam. World production is nearly 500,000 bales higher this month in both 2018/19 and 2019/20, largely due to increases in India’s crop.
The US 2019/20 cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared with last month. Beginning stocks are 350,000 bales higher due to decreases in 2018/19 domestic consumption and exports.
A reported slowdown in domestic spinning results in a 100,000-bale decline in consumption, and exports are reduced 250,000 bales based on the pace of recent shipments.
Ending stocks in 2018/19 are raised 300,000 bales to 6.7 million, or 33 percent of use. The forecast for the marketing-year average price received by producers is reduced 1 cent to 63 cents per pound, a 4-year low.
USDA-2019-20 (July) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-79.27/80.97
Production-125.79/119.32
Import-44.12/41.41
Consumption-124.27/121.07
Export-44.15/41.05
Ending Stock-80.42/79.27
INDIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-8.43/9.23
Production-29/26.50
Import-1.40/1.50
Consumption-25.50/25
Export-4.40/3.80
Ending Stock-8.93/8.43
US (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-5/4.30
Production-22/18.37
Import-0.01/0.01
Consumption-3.10/3
Export-17/14.50
Ending Stock-6.70/5
CHINA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-35.37/38.02
Production-27.75/27.75
Import-10.50/9.25
Consumption-40.50/39.50
Ending Stock-32.99/35.37
BRAZIL (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-11.81/8.66
Production-12/12.80
Consumption-3.60/3.50
Export-8/6.20
Ending Stock-12.28/11.81
PAKISTAN (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.73/2.83
Production-8/7.70
Import-3/2.90
Consumption-10.70/10.60
Export-0.15/0.08
Ending Stock-2.86/2.73
BANGLADESH (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.78/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.30/6.90
Consumption-7.40/7.10
Ending Stock-1.81/1.78
VIETNAM (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.14/1.24
Import-7.80/7
Consumption-7.60/7.10
Ending Stock-1.34/1.14
AUSTRALIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.80/3.04
Production-1.90/2.40
Export-1.80/3.60
Ending Stock-1.87/1.80
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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