MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2019-20 pea exports may slip to 3 million tonnes (Mt) compared to 3.1 million tonnes in 2018-19, according to AAFC’s April outlook.
For 2018-19, dry pea supply is slightly lower than the previous year at 4.3million tonnes (Mt). Canada’s exports are forecast to rise to 3.1 Mt, up marginally from the 2017-18 level. Lower exports to India and the US have been more than offset by the record export pace to China and increased demand from Bangladesh.
Canadian exports to the US for the year-to-date (August-March) are lower than for the same period last year due to the larger US dry pea crop.
As a result of lower domestic supply and slightly higher exports, carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to decrease sharply to 0.3 Mt.
The average price is expected to be marginally higher than 2017-18, due to higher green pea and feed prices when compared to last year. This has been partly offset by lower yellow pea prices. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a crop year premium of $135/t over yellow dry peas, compared to the $40/t premium in 2017-18. During the month of April, Saskatchewan yellow pea farmgate prices were unchanged and green pea farmgate prices fell $30/t.
For 2019-20, producers intend to increase seeded area in Canada to 1.6 million hectares (Mha), up 12% from 2018-19.
This would be the fourth largest Canadian dry pea area on record and is largely due to good returns relative to other crops and the continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 54% of the dry pea area, Alberta 42%, with the remainder seeded across Canada.
Production is forecast to rise by 12% to 4.0 Mt due to average yields and higher area seeded. Supply is forecast to increase to 4.3 Mt despite lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower than 2018-19 at 3.0 Mt and carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is expected to be similar to 2018-19 due to increased domestic and world supply.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to rise marginally to 0.9 million acres (Mac). This is largely due an increase in expected area in Montana and a reduction in area in North Dakota.
Lentils
For 2018-19, Canada’s lentil supply is nearly 3.0 Mt and exports are forecast to rise sharply from 2017-18 to 1.8 Mt. The main markets continue to be the Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and India.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to below 0.8 Mt. The average price of lentils in Canada is forecast to fall sharply from levels recorded for the previous year despite an increase in import demand, particularly from Bangladesh and India.
Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a $70/t premium over red lentil prices for the entire crop year, compared to a $340/t premium to red lentils in 2017-18. During the month of April, Saskatchewan large green lentil farmgate prices rose $10/t while red lentil farmgate prices were unchanged.
For 2019-20, producers intend to decrease the area seeded to lentils in Canada by 10% to 1.38 Mha, due to the sharp decline in large farmgate prices in April 2018. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 91% of the lentil area, with the remainder seeded in Alberta and Manitoba.
Production is forecast to fall to 2.0 Mt and supply is expected to decrease to 2.8 Mt, mostly due to carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to remain unchanged at 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 0.5 Mt. The average price is forecast to increase from 2018-19, with the assumption of an average grade distribution and with higher prices for No.1 red and green lentils grades.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at 0.6 Mac, 29% lower than in 2018-19, due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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