NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest April report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 118.93 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 118.89 million bales projected in March.
Lower world consumption this month results in higher projected 2018/19 ending stocks, with little net change in the other components of the global balance sheet. World mill use is forecast about 400,000 bales lower this month.
A 300,000-bale decline in Turkey—and smaller declines in the United States and Vietnam—more than offset smaller increases elsewhere.
Lower imports for India, Turkey, and Vietnam are largely offset by an upward revision for China. Lower exports for India and Burkina Faso are largely offset by Australia and Turkey.
Higher production for China is largely offset by a decline for Burkina Faso. World ending stocks in 2018/19 are forecast about 360,000 bales higher this month, with an increase in China’s stocks more than offsetting a decline in stocks outside of China.
India
The agency has kept India's 2018-19 production, consumption and beginning stocks estimates unchanged at March level.
However, the agency has lowered its estimates for India's imports and exports at 1.40 million bales and 4.20 million bales, from 1.60 million bales and 4.50 million bales, respectively.
India's ending stocks projection has been revised upwards to 8.63 million bales compared to 8.53 million bales.
United States
The 2018/19 US cotton supply and demand forecasts show lower consumption and higher ending stocks relative to last month.
At 3.1 million bales, US cotton consumption is now forecast to reach its lowest level since the 1890s. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.4 million bales, a 100,000-bale increase from both the previous 2018/19 estimate and from the current estimate for 2017/18.
The season-average farm price is unchanged with a mid-point of 70 cents per pound.
USDA-2018-19 (April) vs 2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-81.05/80.40
Production-118.93/123.76
Import-42.09/41.04
Consumption-123.18/122.76
Export-42.09/40.92
Ending Stock-76.44/81.05
INDIA
Opening Stock-9.23/7.88
Production-27/29
Import-1.40/1.68
Consumption-24.80/24.15
Export-4.20/5.18
Ending Stock-8.63/9.23
US
Opening Stock-4.30/2.75
Production-18.39/20.92
Import-0.01/Nil
Consumption-3.10/3.23
Export-15/15.85
Ending Stock-4.40/4.30
CHINA
Opening Stock-38.02/45.92
Production-27.75/27.50
Import-8/5.73
Consumption-40.50/41
Ending Stock-32.12/38.02
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-8.66/6.93
Production-11.80/9.22
Consumption-3.50/3.40
Export-6/4.17
Ending Stock-11.01/8.66
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.83/2.32
Production-7.70/8.20
Import-3/3.30
Consumption-10.60/10.80
Export-0.13/0.16
Ending Stock-2.78/2.83
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.86/1.63
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-8/7.60
Consumption-8/7.50
Ending Stock-1.98/1.86
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/0.88
Import-7.30/7
Consumption-7.20/6.70
Ending Stock-1.29/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-3.04/2.19
Production-2.50/4.80
Export-3.80/3.92
Ending Stock-1.70/3.04
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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