NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest March report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 118.89 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 118.45 million bales projected in February.
The 2018-19 world production is estimated up 350,000 bales in Brazil on higher area and 200,000 bales up in Pakistan based on arrivals at gins. Production is 100,000 bales lower in Australia due to weather.
World trade is forecast 140,000 bales lower with reductions for Brazil and Indonesia on the export and import sides based on activity to date.
World ending stocks are projected up to 76.09 million bales as compared to 75.50 million bales estimated in February.
"Ending stocks for 2018/19 are forecast 590,000 bales higher this month, at 76.1 million bales. This would be 5.1 million bales below their revised 2017/18 level," the USDA said in its report.
The agency has also increased world 2018-19 beginning stocks projection at 81.14 million bales from 81.05 million bales estimated in February.
However, global consumption is estimated down at 123.59 million bales from 125.64 million bales.
India
The agency has kept India's 2018-19 production, exports, consumption, beginning stocks, ending stocks and imports estimates unchanged at February level.
United States
The US 2018-19 cotton supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 69.0 to 71.0 cents per pound is reduced 2 cents, as the reported average price for January fell below previous expectations.
USDA-2018-19 (March) vs (Feb) vs 2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-81.14/81.05/80.40
Production-118.89/118.45/123.78
Import-42.18/42.31/40.93
Consumption-123.59/123.64/122.58
Export-42.18/42.32/40.92
Ending Stock-76.09/75.50/81.14
INDIA
Opening Stock-9.23/9.23/7.88
Production-27/27/29
Import-1.60/1.60/1.68
Consumption-24.80/24.80/24.15
Export-4.50/4.50/5.18
Ending Stock-8.53/8.53/9.23
US
Opening Stock-4.30/4.30/2.75
Production-18.39/18.39/20.92
Import-0.01/0.1/Nil
Consumption-3.20/3.20/3.23
Export-15/15/15.85
Ending Stock-4.30/4.30/4.30
CHINA
Opening Stock-38.02/38.02/45.92
Production-27.50/27.50/27.50
Import-7.50/7.50/5.73
Consumption-40.50/40.50/41
Ending Stock-32.37/32.37/38.02
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-8.66/8.66/6.93
Production-11.75/11.40/9.22
Consumption-3.50/3.50/3.40
Export-6/6.20/4.17
Ending Stock-11.01/10.48/8.66
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.83/2.83/2.32
Production-7.70/7.50/8.20
Import-3/3/3.30
Consumption-10.60/10.60/10.80
Export-0.13/0.13/0.16
Ending Stock-2.78/2.58/2.83
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.86/1.86/1.63
Production-0.14/0.14/0.14
Import-8/8/7.60
Consumption-8/8/7.50
Ending Stock-1.98/1.98/1.86
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.19/0.88
Import-7.40/7.40/6.90
Consumption-7.30/7.30/6.60
Ending Stock-1.29/1.29/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-3.04/2.94/2.19
Production-2.50/2.60/4.80
Export-3.60/3.60/3.92
Ending Stock-1.90/1.90/3.04
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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