Mumbai (Commoditiescontrol) – Prices of Mustard seed witnessed mixed trade during earlier week with weather concerns supporting the market from one side while sluggish soybean fundamentals pushing the prices from other side. Finally benchmark April’19 contract settled at INR 3912, down by 0.4% from previous week close of INR 3928.
According to rainfall data available with Skymet, West Rajasthan since January has received excess rains by 38%, whereas East Rajasthan is still deficient by 13%. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the gusty winds and hailstorm brought in widespread damage for the Rabi crops growing in the area. Crops over the region were already reeling under damages caused by the previous spell of hailstorm when this recent weather came as a blow to farmers over the region. The report over extent of damage will be release by Mustard association in coming weeks after which fair idea on mustard output will be estimated.
In the meantime, SEA published its latest report on Veg oil imports data for the month of Jan’2019. Import of vegetable oils during January 2019 is reported at 1,275,259 tons compared to 1,291,141 tons in January 2018, consisting 1,210,603 tons of edible oils and 64,656 tons of non-edible oils i.e. down by 3% on y-o-y basis. However, on monthly basis, the total imports were higher by 5% from Dec month where in country imported 1,211,164 tons of edible oil. The overall import of vegetable oils during November 2018 to January 2019 is reported at 3,620,316 tons compared to 3,628,734 tons more or less the same.
The shipment of soybean oil fell sharply to 1,85,906 tons from 2,24,870 tons, while that of rapeseed-mustard oil declined to 9,434 tons from 16,702 tons in the said period.
Harvesting of rabi-grown crops started this month and seasonal supply pressure is gradually building over rabi oilseeds. A month is left for mustard harvesting to commence from the leading producing state, Rajasthan. Nonetheless, new crop arrivals in the market would commence in the next 10 days from other growing states, including West Bengal, Bihar and Assam. Moreover, if weather is favorable in the next one-month, mustard seed output in the 2018-19 season would be the highest of the last four years. Mustard seeds would thus be bearish due to the optimistic crop picture and harvesting season ahead.
On a short run, prevailing weather concern might provide minor strength to mustard market, however expectation of weak demand along with likely increase in arrivals from next couple of weeks and bearish sentiments in neighboring soya market shall keep the overall trade on sluggish note.
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