Canadian 2018-19 Dry Pea (Matar) Supply Is Estimated To Fall By 4%

MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canadian dry pea exports for the August to November period were 1.1 million tonnes (Mt), marginally higher than for the same period last year. China imported the largest portion to-date at 0.8 Mt. The leading export market, after China, is the US and Bangladesh. Total Canadian dry pea exports for the crop year are forecast to fall to 2.7 Mt due to lower export demand from India.

Canadian dry pea supply is estimated to fall by 4% as lower production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Despite lower supply, carry-out stocks are expected to be unchanged and continue to be supportive for prices throughout 2018-19. The average price is expected to be similar to slightly higher than 2017-18, mostly due to higher prices for green peas and similar prices for yellow peas despite the imposition by India, Canada’s largest dry pea market, of a 50% duty on Indian dry pea imports. Green pea prices are expected to maintain a premium of $80/t over yellow peas for the crop year, compared to the $40/t premium green peas had to yellow peas last year.

US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at 0.6 Mt, down marginally from 2017-18. This was largely due to lower seeded area, but was offset by higher yields. As a result, Canadian dry pea exports to the US are forecast at 0.3 Mt in 2018-19.

For 2019-20, seeded area is forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2018-19 at 1.46 Mha, because of good returns relative to other crops. Dry peas continue to be recognised as a beneficial part of a crop rotation plan. Production is expected to rise marginally to 3.6 Mt, with an expectation of trend yields. Supply is forecast to rise marginally to 4.3 Mt due to similar carry-in stocks. Despite the tariff in India, exports to other countries are expected to rise from 2018-19 and carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is expected to be marginally lower than 2018-19, due to lower green pea prices and ample world supply.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015513)