Mumbai (Commoditiescontrol) – Prices of Mustard seed, the largest grown rabi oilseed, recovered previous week with reports of unfavorable weather in Rajasthan, UP and MP belts. However, despite cold wave and rainfall in many north Indian states, no major crop losses have been seen which helped the market to ease in latter part of week. NCDEX benchmark contract opened higher at INR 3991 after which market made a new high of INR 399. In the end market settled slightly flat at INR 3975, almost stagnant at previous week closure.
Skymet is continuously warning for another active Western Disturbance to approach and induce a Cyclonic Circulation over Northwest Rajasthan on February 5. Moreover, heavy rains and hailstorm activities might cause a heavy damage to crop such as Mustard, Wheat, Peas, Gram that are currently under their growing stage. Any such looming weather concerns can keep the mustard market on a tighter note.
A month is left for mustard harvesting to commence from the leading producing state -- Rajasthan. Nonetheless, new crop arrivals in the market would commence in the next 10 days from other growing states, including West Bengal, Bihar and Assam. If there have been no major damages recorded in next fortnight, mustard seed output in the 2018-19 season would be the highest of the last four years a around 7.1 million tons. Mustard seed price outlook would thus be bearish for next couple of week due to the optimistic crop picture and harvesting season ahead.
Meanwhile, continuous offloading of old stocks by major traders and government agencies also build pressure on physical markets. NAFED during previous week has liquidated more than 2 thousand metric tons of mustard seed at various centers of Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya. The left-over stocks with NAFED is now close to 2.15 lakh tons.
All Indian daily arrivals reduced to 70,000 bags (vs. 1 lakh bags earlier week) during previous week with Rajasthan accounting for 30,000 bags, MP-5,000, UP-10,000, Haryana and Punjab-10,000 and Gujarat-5000, and other states-10,000. However, as market players are keenly waiting for fresh crop with better quality, demand for mustard seed remained completely silent in physical mandi and this shall keep adding pressure on mustard market sentiments.
On a short run, likely weather concern during mid-week might provide minor strength to mustard market, however expectation of weak demand, bumper crop and bearish sentiments in neighboring soya market shall keep the overall trade on lethargic note.
(By Commokditiescontrol Bureau)